Journal 4/21

I am reading the Amazin' Avenue Annual 2010 and I must say, I am pretty impressed. It is well-organized, well-written, and well-conceived. Even Matt "Ellipsis" Cerrone contributed a sensible, if vague, article. Seeing this work makes me want to be part of the Mets blogosphere once again, but I'm not sure I can do it.

The Ike Davis era has begun, and fans are bound for disappointment, as Davis will probably not be a premium first baseman or corner outfielder unless he stops prematurely dropping his hands and thus develops more consistent line drive and home run potential. We'll see a lot of pop-ups and lunges until then. Still, he is superior right now to Mike Jacobs and Mike Hessman, and probably Chris Carter too. Daniel Murphy, the other option at first base, might be able to outperform Davis but is better suited as a four-corners utilityman. Nick Evans probably belongs on the major league bench, but shouldn't be a starting first baseman.

Murphy and Evans are the kinds of players the Mets just don't understand. They provide cheap value, but they have to be used correctly. They shouldn't be counted on as regular starters and aren't worth much as trade bait. They are kind of home-grown players that should be filling out the Mets' bench at a low price instead of relatively high-priced free agent/washout acquisitions like Tatis, Cora, and Matthews.

I was very surprised at Luis Castillo's performance last year, with a .387 OBP and 20 steals. I didn't think that Slappy was able to do anything but decline miserably. Unfortunately, he is still doing that on defense; he is a defensive specialist who can't field anymore. Major league baseball teams have a hard time defending their use of all-field, no-hit infielders, but when it's no-field, no-hit, it's really not worth it. If Castillo could put up a SLG of .400, with a .360 OBP, his sub par defense might be playable. Instead, he lives almost entirely on singles and walks, and not many of those singles are the infield hits he enjoyed earlier in his career. Castillo has some speed left and is a smart baserunner, but his usefulness as a starter is long gone. This is why it is so frustrating that the Mets, who clearly recognize this, failed to sign Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez after they couldn't find a taker for Castillo's stupid contract (which, by the way, I predicted before it happened.) It's quite sad that the Mets are sticking a .350 slugging percentage in the 2-hole every day when statistical analysis shows that it is not patience at the plate or contact ability that is most important for that spot, but slugging percentage.

Frank Catalanotto: the Mets could do a lot, lot worse. They have in the past, and they will in the future. Franky the Cat is nothing special for a pinch hitter, of course, but at least he's not Julio Franco. It should go without saying, also, that Catalanotto should not be hitting cleanup.

Speaking of Jerry Manuel being a bad manager, he should really chill it with the relief pitchers. And yes, of course, Jenrry Mejia should be starting games in AA, or at least AAA. And if he has to be on the big club, he should still be starting. I would give him John Maine's spot, because his arm looks dead and I'm still hoping that Oliver Perez has something left.

That makes me kind of like Omar Minaya. In my general post about the fallacies of Mets management strategy, I got some great comments. The best point was that Minaya sometimes acquires adequate personnel but grows attached to them; or, he makes a good gamble and loses but instead of moving on he keeps trying to extract value from the same ghostly, sunk cost player. Minaya should understand that General Managers gamble and lose all the time, but they make up for this by other gambles, by being flexible and fluid with their player acquisitions. But, Omar is not that kind of GM; he's the kind who says, "OK, he's nine out of ten against this guy. Am I going to get that nine out of ten or that one out of ten?" (Quotation courtesy of Derek Carty, writing in the Annual.)

Finally, if the Mets are close (5 games) to the division lead in July (I doubt it, but it's totally possible), they should seriously consider trading Fernando Martinez.