That's it.
For the third consecutive year, unused celebratory champagne is surreptitiously removed from Shea Stadium.
Stay tuned here throughout the offseason for the conclusion of our Ranking the GMs series.
Whether I will be blogging into the Citi Field era remains an open question.
Cheers.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Oh Oliver
I believe that you are good.
You are in control.
You are a very good pitcher.
The Mets have nothing to worry about, really.
You will shut them down.
Then we will await the results in Milwaukee.
I have lost the ability to analyze objectively.
I can't believe this season is just like the last.
In all but the last game, of course.
Because Oliver is no (*******).
And this time we have Ramon Martinez.
And Brian Schneider.
And Ryan Church.
And Luis Ayala
Proven winners, all.
All the VORP and tRA,
EqA and Zone Ratings in the world
have no power
not like a clutch base hit
to win the pennant*
*In this case, the "Wild Card."
Let's Go Mets!
You are in control.
You are a very good pitcher.
The Mets have nothing to worry about, really.
You will shut them down.
Then we will await the results in Milwaukee.
I have lost the ability to analyze objectively.
I can't believe this season is just like the last.
In all but the last game, of course.
Because Oliver is no (*******).
And this time we have Ramon Martinez.
And Brian Schneider.
And Ryan Church.
And Luis Ayala
Proven winners, all.
All the VORP and tRA,
EqA and Zone Ratings in the world
have no power
not like a clutch base hit
to win the pennant*
*In this case, the "Wild Card."
Let's Go Mets!
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Micah Hoffpauir
A late-twenties AAA-veteran who has consistently put up powerful minor league numbers can actually contribute at the major league level?
WOW!
Edit: Chone Smith has just released his Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for minor leaguers. Here are the relevant figures:
Micah Hoffpauir: .307/.336/.606
Valentino Pascucci: .251/.348/.441
Hoffpauir's slugging percentage in AAA was .752 this year. Both he and Pascucci, who slugged "only" .553, played in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League.
Let's Go Mets!
WOW!
Edit: Chone Smith has just released his Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for minor leaguers. Here are the relevant figures:
Micah Hoffpauir: .307/.336/.606
Valentino Pascucci: .251/.348/.441
Hoffpauir's slugging percentage in AAA was .752 this year. Both he and Pascucci, who slugged "only" .553, played in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League.
Let's Go Mets!
WHY?
I am just at a loss for words with recent developments.
Mets blow it, Brewers win and tie with the Mets with four to go, and somehow Omar Minaya gets a 4-year extension.
I... just can't.
Mets blow it, Brewers win and tie with the Mets with four to go, and somehow Omar Minaya gets a 4-year extension.
I... just can't.
Monday, September 22, 2008
You are Excused
For turning off tonight's game and watching the Jets/Chargers or reading Proust's Remembrance of Things Past or playing Halo 3 or whatever.
In case you missed it, Gary Cohen of SNY offered this Fun Fact: In the last five years there have been three grand slams hit by pitchers. All three were against the Mets, at Shea Stadium, and in the last two years.
Disgusting.
In case you missed it, Gary Cohen of SNY offered this Fun Fact: In the last five years there have been three grand slams hit by pitchers. All three were against the Mets, at Shea Stadium, and in the last two years.
Disgusting.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Things I Might Have Been Wrong About
1) The trade that sent Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider was definitely a bad deal for the Mets in the long run, and could even be deleterious in 2008. I wrote:
All in all, Lastings has improved in his greatest hitting deficiency, chasing outside pitches. As he develops, his bat will be quite valuable as an above-average center fielder.
But the Mets might not be where they are today, poised to make the playoffs, had this trade not been made. And I need to admit that. Brian Schneider is overrated as a defender, and his bat is weak, but it could be a lot weaker. He draws walks, which is helpful. And he doesn't get injured quite like Ramón Castro, this blog's catcher-of-choice.
And Ryan Church has a nice steady bat and impressive corner outfield glove, but he's just a corner outfielder, and they're not that hard to come by. I know that may sound weird to fans of a team who have fielded the likes of Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley and Endy Chavez in the outfield day after day, but it's true.
Still, Church is young and under team control for a few more years. That's worth quite a bit.
2) When he was called up, I wrote of Fernando Tatis:
Perhaps part of the animosity was that I was beginning my campaign for Valentino Pascucci, who seemed in all respects more worthwhile of the role Tatis was filling. A right-handed bat with better numbers who plays the same position should get the call over a guy who is familiar only because he played in the major leagues once before and flamed out. I stand by that justification, but humbly admit that I never expected Tatis to be this good. I also doubt very much whether he will be able sustain a level of production anywhere near what he did this year.
By the way, the justification for Pascucci over Tatis still holds for Nick Evans. I guess the team figures that Evans is part of the future and Valentino is not. Fair enough. But this is not a team figuring out what it will look like in two years. It is a playoff team that has no reason to start the arbitration clock on a youngster who is clearly not ready to play major league baseball.
3) The Johan Santana trade will be a long-term loser for the Mets. I wrote for Mets Geek:
The relevant number for Carlos Gomez is his .294 OBP. Plate discipline was, and remains his problem. He is a superb center fielder, a tremendously fast and intelligent base runner, and a quality swinger-of-bats. Unfortunately for the Twins, all of that will amount to a hill of beans if Gomez doesn't learn plate discipline and patience. Yes, he's only 22 and could still learn, but the big leagues ain't the place to do it.
23-year old Kevin Mulvey will almost certainly be a big league pitcher. He had a 121:48 K:BB ratio in AAA. That's very solid and consistent with his numbers through all levels. I'm not sure about his other peripherals (ground balls, mainly), but having a huge K:BB disparity in the right direction is half the battle. But Mulvey himself does not a Santana equal, even considering (as is absolutely necessary in evaluating these things, despite the ignorance of the mainstream media in this respect) the aspects of team control and salary.
The 25-year old Philip Humber could still be a solid major leaguer, but his 106:49 K:BB ratio at AAA is not good enough to cut it in translation to the majors. He also gives up far too many home runs (21 in 136 innings).
Deolis Guerra? Well, he has taken a big step back. See for yourself.
Financially, I think the Twins will probably get equal value out of this trade. But that's in terms of money paid out for performance, strictly. If one counts the money that Santana will surely earn for the Mets by helping them get to the postseason (and if they make it by less than three games, which they almost certainly will, you can thank Santana for it), it makes the trade a clear win for the Mets.
Kazmir, Part 2.Surely this was an exaggeration. Lastings was pretty terrible for most of 2008, but has picked it up considerably in the past month. And while he looks terrible in center field at times, his metrics are pretty good.
Milledge for a league-average outfielder and a mediocre catcher.
Lastings will outperform Church next year.
Simply amazingly bad.
All in all, Lastings has improved in his greatest hitting deficiency, chasing outside pitches. As he develops, his bat will be quite valuable as an above-average center fielder.
But the Mets might not be where they are today, poised to make the playoffs, had this trade not been made. And I need to admit that. Brian Schneider is overrated as a defender, and his bat is weak, but it could be a lot weaker. He draws walks, which is helpful. And he doesn't get injured quite like Ramón Castro, this blog's catcher-of-choice.
And Ryan Church has a nice steady bat and impressive corner outfield glove, but he's just a corner outfielder, and they're not that hard to come by. I know that may sound weird to fans of a team who have fielded the likes of Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley and Endy Chavez in the outfield day after day, but it's true.
Still, Church is young and under team control for a few more years. That's worth quite a bit.
2) When he was called up, I wrote of Fernando Tatis:
Tatis is an ancient curiosity, an infielder who was never good at playing infield but now "plays" outfield. His only skill is power, which is easily exploited because his swing is long, loopy, and slow. He briefly experienced success in the late nineties when the general quality of pitching in the league was very low, but he has no place on a major league roster except as[a] comical token veteran reserve.Well, I was wrong. Somehow Fernando went .297/.369/.484 with 11 home runs and played an adequate left field. When he suffered a separated shoulder the team took a big hit.
Perhaps part of the animosity was that I was beginning my campaign for Valentino Pascucci, who seemed in all respects more worthwhile of the role Tatis was filling. A right-handed bat with better numbers who plays the same position should get the call over a guy who is familiar only because he played in the major leagues once before and flamed out. I stand by that justification, but humbly admit that I never expected Tatis to be this good. I also doubt very much whether he will be able sustain a level of production anywhere near what he did this year.
By the way, the justification for Pascucci over Tatis still holds for Nick Evans. I guess the team figures that Evans is part of the future and Valentino is not. Fair enough. But this is not a team figuring out what it will look like in two years. It is a playoff team that has no reason to start the arbitration clock on a youngster who is clearly not ready to play major league baseball.
3) The Johan Santana trade will be a long-term loser for the Mets. I wrote for Mets Geek:
The Mets traded three starting pitchers with a good chance of major league success and a high-upside outfielder for one year of one pitcher and the privilege of giving him the largest pitching contract ever. There is a lot of risk here.Again, here, I wrote:
...the Mets are giving up the high-end potential of six below-market years for four players, a total of twenty-four below market years, for one single below-market year of Johan Santana and the special privilege of giving him the largest contract ever given to pitcher.My arguments may yet prove prophetic, but the relevant players' performances this year indicate otherwise. As David Lennon writes after posting their statistics, "I'm sure the Mets will be happy with this deal for a long time."
Of course, you can say that Santana is worth any number of prospects. After all, he is The Best Pitcher in Baseball, and an opportunity to acquire TBPiB doesn't come along every day. Thus, the Mets were smart to snatch him up, and even smarter not to trade their best prospect, Fernando Martinez.
But why, then, did the Yankees and Red Sox compete with each other not to acquire Santana? Why did they fall over each other trying to hit the other one with the winner's curse? Why, as Bob Klapisch reports, did they turn aside even the meager packages the Twins requested at the end, before turning to the Mets?
The relevant number for Carlos Gomez is his .294 OBP. Plate discipline was, and remains his problem. He is a superb center fielder, a tremendously fast and intelligent base runner, and a quality swinger-of-bats. Unfortunately for the Twins, all of that will amount to a hill of beans if Gomez doesn't learn plate discipline and patience. Yes, he's only 22 and could still learn, but the big leagues ain't the place to do it.
23-year old Kevin Mulvey will almost certainly be a big league pitcher. He had a 121:48 K:BB ratio in AAA. That's very solid and consistent with his numbers through all levels. I'm not sure about his other peripherals (ground balls, mainly), but having a huge K:BB disparity in the right direction is half the battle. But Mulvey himself does not a Santana equal, even considering (as is absolutely necessary in evaluating these things, despite the ignorance of the mainstream media in this respect) the aspects of team control and salary.
The 25-year old Philip Humber could still be a solid major leaguer, but his 106:49 K:BB ratio at AAA is not good enough to cut it in translation to the majors. He also gives up far too many home runs (21 in 136 innings).
Deolis Guerra? Well, he has taken a big step back. See for yourself.
Financially, I think the Twins will probably get equal value out of this trade. But that's in terms of money paid out for performance, strictly. If one counts the money that Santana will surely earn for the Mets by helping them get to the postseason (and if they make it by less than three games, which they almost certainly will, you can thank Santana for it), it makes the trade a clear win for the Mets.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
To the Brewers!
The only team more pitiable than the Mets, as far as September collapses in back-to-back seasons goes. Not that this is a collapse or anything.
Johan Santana, Tim Redding. Should be a pushover, will probably be a nail-biter. I'm just going to assume the Phillies will overcome a 5-run deficit in the ninth to come back and win, 10-9.
Go team!
Johan Santana, Tim Redding. Should be a pushover, will probably be a nail-biter. I'm just going to assume the Phillies will overcome a 5-run deficit in the ninth to come back and win, 10-9.
Go team!
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Never Forget It
No, Carlos Delgado is not an MVP candidate. I just assumed that my readers knew that already.
By the way, I am really enjoying this Mets team right now. I will always be vocal about injustices like Marlon Anderson/Valentino Pascucci, no matter what. Because it's not just that we win, but that we make the right choices-- the just choices, the choices that put the team in the best position to win.
So of course it is worth noting how delighted I am that Jerry Manuel has been using a good hitter, Ryan Church, in the #2 spot in the lineup. If he keeps it up for the next couple games, I'll check that item off in the list of B!T causes (on the right).
I am reading all over the Metsblogosphere that Aaron Heilman should just be released outright. This is insane. People sort of know, but they do not take to heart just how volatile the win-loss records and ERAs of relievers are.
People sort of know, but they don't take to heart how important it is to have young players under team control. That's why it's a huge deal to trade away a Lastings Milledge or a Scott Kazmir.
Has Aaron Heilman had problems? Certainly. It is his fault that his walk rate is higher than ever, his ground ball rate lower than ever. But the defensive efficiency (the rate at which batted balls are turned into outs) behind him is the worst it has ever been, lower than 70%. And his rate of home runs allowed per fly ball-- attributable to luck-- is very high.
Quite simply, the best way to measure a pitcher's ability is his peripherals: strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate. Heilman's rates suggest that he has lost a little control and is giving up more fly balls than usual (and more than their fair share are leaving the park), but nothing significant has changed. The reasonable expectation is that he will continue to be a good pitcher.
And to release him? When he is arbitration-eligible for this offseason and the next (and maybe even the one after that as well)? That would be an insanely terrible move based on flukey, short-term results. That would be like signing Marlon Anderson to a guaranteed two-year contract after a handful of successful at-bats.
By the way, I am really enjoying this Mets team right now. I will always be vocal about injustices like Marlon Anderson/Valentino Pascucci, no matter what. Because it's not just that we win, but that we make the right choices-- the just choices, the choices that put the team in the best position to win.
So of course it is worth noting how delighted I am that Jerry Manuel has been using a good hitter, Ryan Church, in the #2 spot in the lineup. If he keeps it up for the next couple games, I'll check that item off in the list of B!T causes (on the right).
I am reading all over the Metsblogosphere that Aaron Heilman should just be released outright. This is insane. People sort of know, but they do not take to heart just how volatile the win-loss records and ERAs of relievers are.
People sort of know, but they don't take to heart how important it is to have young players under team control. That's why it's a huge deal to trade away a Lastings Milledge or a Scott Kazmir.
Has Aaron Heilman had problems? Certainly. It is his fault that his walk rate is higher than ever, his ground ball rate lower than ever. But the defensive efficiency (the rate at which batted balls are turned into outs) behind him is the worst it has ever been, lower than 70%. And his rate of home runs allowed per fly ball-- attributable to luck-- is very high.
Quite simply, the best way to measure a pitcher's ability is his peripherals: strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate. Heilman's rates suggest that he has lost a little control and is giving up more fly balls than usual (and more than their fair share are leaving the park), but nothing significant has changed. The reasonable expectation is that he will continue to be a good pitcher.
And to release him? When he is arbitration-eligible for this offseason and the next (and maybe even the one after that as well)? That would be an insanely terrible move based on flukey, short-term results. That would be like signing Marlon Anderson to a guaranteed two-year contract after a handful of successful at-bats.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
How About Them Mets?
Talking Points to Take to Work:
Mike Pelfrey is a good pitcher now, but he's not half as good as he's going to be.
Oliver Perez does seem to be a "big game pitcher," though I think he got unlucky last night.
Marlon Anderson: .217/.259/.287 over 141 plate appearances. Is there any reason the Mets are still holding on to him? Fantasies about "clutch" and the like? And you do realize, of course, that Anderson is signed through next year. (I was right. I was right about him.)
Meanwhile, Valentino Pascucci, who hit .290/.410/.553 for New Orleans, is surfing or something.
I'm still hoping that Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez become favored over Luis Ayala as "closer" before the season ends. We can't be in the playoffs (if we make it) with that kind of bullpen, no matter how well it's working now.
Wagner: Such an injury was always a risk with him, especially later in his career. I feel bad for him, but surely all his riches will be a consolation. (No, they won't.)
CARLOS DELGADO! I never proclaimed that he was done, but it's not like the thought didn't cross my mind. I openly wondered about it. Now he looks comfortable, slams two home runs a game, and is writing again.
Mike Pelfrey is a good pitcher now, but he's not half as good as he's going to be.
Oliver Perez does seem to be a "big game pitcher," though I think he got unlucky last night.
Marlon Anderson: .217/.259/.287 over 141 plate appearances. Is there any reason the Mets are still holding on to him? Fantasies about "clutch" and the like? And you do realize, of course, that Anderson is signed through next year. (I was right. I was right about him.)
Meanwhile, Valentino Pascucci, who hit .290/.410/.553 for New Orleans, is surfing or something.
I'm still hoping that Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez become favored over Luis Ayala as "closer" before the season ends. We can't be in the playoffs (if we make it) with that kind of bullpen, no matter how well it's working now.
Wagner: Such an injury was always a risk with him, especially later in his career. I feel bad for him, but surely all his riches will be a consolation. (No, they won't.)
CARLOS DELGADO! I never proclaimed that he was done, but it's not like the thought didn't cross my mind. I openly wondered about it. Now he looks comfortable, slams two home runs a game, and is writing again.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Think I'm a Whiny Bitch, Huh?
I refer you to the 2007 final National League standings.
I refer you to the current 2008 standings.
I think it's important to point out deficiencies that others ignore, and leave the praise to the other places.
If I had to guess, I would not have come to close to getting Luis Ayala's ERA+ from 2003 to 2007. (154, 168, 153, 132). His peripherals are not terribly impressive. Has he just been lucky? Yes and no. His BABIP has been around average his whole career. His K/9 has been worse than average, but his BB/9 and K/BB have been good, though not outstanding. What is shocking is his line-drive rate; 20% of balls put in play against him are line drives, which fall for hits a good percentage of the time (like 70%). His ground-ball rate is average-ish and doesn't make up for that. Remember, since he gets less strikeouts than average, he allows more balls in play. Too many of those are line drives and not enough are ground balls.
How the hell has he put up ERAs in the high twos and low threes? First, it seems he has left an inordinate amount of batters on base. Second, maybe defense? Third, his HR/FB numbers are low. He's an OK pitcher. But probably not the best healthy reliever in the Mets' bullpen-- that's Aaron Heilman. We'll get to him soon.
I refer you to the current 2008 standings.
I think it's important to point out deficiencies that others ignore, and leave the praise to the other places.
If I had to guess, I would not have come to close to getting Luis Ayala's ERA+ from 2003 to 2007. (154, 168, 153, 132). His peripherals are not terribly impressive. Has he just been lucky? Yes and no. His BABIP has been around average his whole career. His K/9 has been worse than average, but his BB/9 and K/BB have been good, though not outstanding. What is shocking is his line-drive rate; 20% of balls put in play against him are line drives, which fall for hits a good percentage of the time (like 70%). His ground-ball rate is average-ish and doesn't make up for that. Remember, since he gets less strikeouts than average, he allows more balls in play. Too many of those are line drives and not enough are ground balls.
How the hell has he put up ERAs in the high twos and low threes? First, it seems he has left an inordinate amount of batters on base. Second, maybe defense? Third, his HR/FB numbers are low. He's an OK pitcher. But probably not the best healthy reliever in the Mets' bullpen-- that's Aaron Heilman. We'll get to him soon.
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