Ranking the GMs, #30: Brian Sabean

Ranking every single general manager in baseball is an act so callous only a cranky blogger like myself could do it. Those more qualified bloggers, like Tom Tango or David Pinto, are far too professional to undertake such a petty and useless exercise. If Tango were to do it, perhaps he would create a metric for measuring every trade, draft pick and free agent signing relative to free agent value, thereby arriving at a cumulative total of value won or lost. Such a metric would have its limitations, but would provide a base of objective value upon which to pile the subjective invective of the critic.

No such statistical work here; this is not a sabermetrics blog any more than it is a blog about Lastings Milledge. No, do not expect comprehensive analysis of every move each GM has made, or even most of the moves he has made. Rather, I will attempt to assess the general strategy and execution of each GM, as best as I understand them. Will the list be passed around front offices? Will the world carefully dissect my rankings? Will heads roll? Of course not. But I can tell you one thing: this list is better than the one in Forbes, where Brian Sabean is ranked fourth.

I first announced my plan to rank every GM in baseball over two weeks ago. Since then, one GM (Wayne Krivsky) has already been replaced (with Walt Jocketty), Bucs Dugout started a bunch of polls on the subject, and Jon Heyman asked, 'which baseball GMs are just pretenders'? But the series of posts to come here will not only criticize the bad ones; it will praise the good guys too.

Brian Sabean is not a good general manager, no matter what anyone says. Still, he was once considered a top GM, responsible for assembling Giants teams that finished either first or second in the division from his first year, 1997, to 2004-- a span of eight years. That is no small achievement. In 1996 the team went 68-94, but in '97 they won 90 games. How did he do it?

First, he replaced 1B Mark Carreon and his inadequate .317 OBP with JT Snow, acquired for pennies on the dollar from the Angels. Snow went on to have his best year ever in '97 and a long and respectable career for the Giants. Then he traded star third baseman Matt Williams to the Indians for cheap, useful young players Julian Tavarez, Jose Vizcaino and Jeff Kent. The Giants had young Bill Mueller waiting to take over at third, and Vizcaino and Kent represented solid upgrades over the current options at their positions, with the added bonus of significant upside. Kent quickly realized his potential and become a perennial MVP candidate, winning the award in 2000.

But how much credit can one give to an executive who over his 11-year reign has done nothing to ensure long-term competitiveness for his team? Sabean is a very unique general manager in that his entire job has been to assemble role players around a guy who is quite possibly the best baseball player ever: Barry Bonds. That Barry Bonds was so astoundingly good that he could carry a roster of aging scrubs long past their primes, is a testament to Bonds' supreme ability and unnatural career path, not Sabean's skill as a general manager. How could he have known that Bonds, who was already turning 32 in Sabean's first year as general manager, would sustain an amazing level of production through age 35, and then instead of slowly declining, become a significantly better player than he had ever been for four more years, through age 39? Sabean could not have anticipated this; no one could. He was just lucky that Bonds' insane career path masked a continually flawed and uninspired player acquisition and roster construction strategy. It is no accident that when Bonds lost most of 2005 to injury, the Giants finished under .500 for the first time since 1996.

Sabean made bad free agent signings, bad trades, and bad decisions all around. Of course, in eleven years that's bound to happen, but Sabean has had more than his share. Everyone knows about the trade of Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan for average catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Otherwise Sabean has not been burned terribly by the prospects he likes to deal for veterans. He prefers to pay free agent value or higher for his old players. I'm too lazy to count how many 32-to-36 year olds on the verge of breakdown Sabean has signed to long term deals, but he has taken it to a new level in the last few years. The team is now a catalogue of ancient players and bad contracts: 36-year old former infielder Rich Aurilia plays first base. For some reason 40-year old Omar Vizquel was given a one year extension last year despite the team's obvious non-competitiveness. Equally mystifying is the deal given to Aaron Rowand, a good enough player but with no purpose on the Giants, who also have long-term deals with unremarkable 30-something Randy Winn and equally boring 36-year old Dave Roberts, both signed through 2009. Why?

Sabean is stuck in Bonds mode, where he could afford to give family-friendly deals to guys like Winn and Roberts, 3rd-to-4th outfielder types with little power and not enough plate discipline to compensate for it. In the 2006/07 offseason the end of the Giants' competitive streak had come and the Bonds era was almost over, but Sabean proceeded to hand out contracts to Bengie Molina, Aurilia, Roberts, Ray Durham, Ryan Klesko, Steve Kline and Pedro Feliz, all thirty-somethings who were not going to help the team be competitive in 2007. Sabean also brought back Bonds, knowing only one way to win: just put a bunch of known quantities out there with Barry Bonds. Unfortunately, it was much too late for that.

The biggest offense of that offseason, however, will be felt for many years to come. That was the signing of Barry Zito to a seven-year, $126 million contract, the most money ever given to a pitcher at that time. Sabean wasn't the only one vying for Zito's services, but he was clearly the most enthusiastic. The nature of bidding wars is that the team that wins often overpays; we call this the winner's curse. However, when a team (like the Mets trading for Santana) benefits more than the other bidders because of a unique situation such as being on the edge of contention, they are justified in overpaying. This was not the case with the Giants and Zito, nor was it the case with every other veteran they resigned that offseason.

As you're probably aware, Zito was no ace last year and is terrible this year. He has already been moved to the bullpen. Lookout Landing recently remarked, "Barry Zito's contract is the worst contract ever signed in baseball history." That's bad.

Today's Giants are laughably bad, almost guaranteed to be the worst team in baseball despite a roster full of old players and two great young pitchers in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. It's fine to have a bad team; the Devil Rays were miserable for a few years while Andrew Friedman fixed the organization; the same cannot be said for the Giants. Last year's free agent signings and this year's signing of Aaron Rowand to a long-term deal mean that Brian Sabean and the Giants either don't realize that they need to rebuild and ship out all their veterans or they don't care and just want to pretend that they are competing so they can make a little bit more money. That's lazy and irresponsible.

In a predictable turn, the Giants' old and feeble players cannot play on the field consistently, so this year they have been forced to play minor leaguers who are far too young for the major leagues. Normally it would be wise for the Giants to go young and strengthen the organization over the next few years by obtaining prospects in return for their established veterans, but by using players who are far too young for the major leagues they are stunting the development of those players and further compromising the organization's future. When they hold onto every one of their veteran players for too long it's funny, but when they embarrass their young players and themselves by promoting them well before their time, it's almost criminal. With Barry Bonds gone from San Francisco, Brian Sabean's smoke and mirrors show was destroyed, an incompetent general manager revealed. Inexplicably, last year he was able to trade Matt Morris and his entire contract to the Pirates for Rajai Davis-- not that it matters who it was; giving him away would have been a great move-- but that was more about the even greater incompetence of Dave Littlefield than the smart maneuvering of Brian Sabean.

Even though every move he makes seems to hurt the team, the Giants signed Sabean to a two-year extension in 2007. Take a long draft, San Francisco. You're the laughingstock of the league.
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PLEASE VOTE in the poll to the right. Your vote will "help decide" the focus of the next piece in this series.

Willie's Guide to the Bullpen

Billy Wagner: Billy. Can't say enough about Billy. He's my closer. He comes in when we need three outs. Not four, not five, not two. He's a future Hall of Famer. Shuts the door for us when we're leading by one, two or three runs. I used to use him when the game was tied or we were behind by one or ahead by four runs, but Billy put a stop to that. Hopefully we'll play some more close games with us on top so Billy can get more than seven innings every 20 games. But sometimes that's how it is with a stopper like Billy. You save him until you really need him. It might not be today, it might not be tomorrow, it might not be until next week. But when we're up 6-4 on the Pirates in the ninth, there's only one man I want out there.

Aaron Heilman: Aaron's my guy in the eighth inning. He can be shaky at times, but he's solid out there, and I trust him. Yea, so what if he wants to be a starter? Not on our team, not on these Mets. He's too valuable in the bullpen. He just needs to get into a nice little rhythm, stay consistent and he'll be fine. Yea, the other night he caught some bad breaks and he almost got out of it, but he's fine. Don't worry about Aaron.

Jorge Sosa: Yea, Sosa, he's my workhorse. He can start for us if we need it, he can go one inning, two innings, three innings. I like to bring him in around the sixth or seventh, let him get a couple innings. He's solid against both left and right-handers, so I don't need to worry about that. He's a good setup guy, a useful guy to have out there. What's that? In 1478 plate appearances, left-handers have hit .297/.385/.509 off Sosa? Sosa turns every lefty into some combination of John Olerud, Paul Konerko and Chase Utley? I don't think so. He has a very good changeup that he uses against left-handers. Plus, he's a workhorse. I can use him every day. He can go out there every day. Why not use him every day?

Scott Schoeneweis: He's my number one lefty setup guy. The fans have been a little upset about him because he's struggled in spots, but as long as he stays confident, he's the man out there. I use him around the seventh and eighth when some lefties are coming up, but the good thing about him is that he's tough on righties too. There's a reason he's making $3.5 million a year. What? Not again! Look, baseball isn't played by computers, and I don't care that you say right-handers have hit .292/.364/.465 off Scott in 2697 plate appearances. He's my guy out there.

Pedro Feliciano: Pedro's a nice little lefty to have in the pen. You can bring him in to get a couple lefties out, maybe every once in a while get him a whole inning or two and let him face some righties if we got a big lead or we're behind by a lot. You don't want to mess with his confidence though, so right now Sosa and Schoeneweis are going to get the big spots. Nice little pitcher, though; he can be useful.

Duaner Sanchez: Duaner's been good so far. Don't want to rush things coming back from all that time off, but we'll get him an appearance here and there. I wouldn't get too excited. He's still a baby.

Matt Wise: I don't know too much about Matty, but he's a proven arm and whenever he comes back we've got a spot in the bullpen for him.

Joe Smith: Yea, Joe's been real good for us in some tough spots this year. He's still just a kid and he's got to pay his dues doing some mop-up but he's a good guy to get out there for a little change of pace against a right-hander. We'll probably send him down when Matt Wise gets back, but he's a nice kid.

Carlos Muñiz: Who?

Mets Record by #2 Hitter

Church: 5-0
Pagan: 3-0
Castillo: 2-8

It's no secret that Castillo can't really hit. He has no place hitting second. I fought all last year about Lo Duca, only to have him replaced with someone with even less power. I don't really want to talk about it anymore; I just want it to end.

Here's another fun statistic: Castillo has 17 career sacrifice flies in 6299 plate appearances. That's one every 370.5 plate appearances, or less than two per season. Is this because he can't hit the ball deep enough in the outfield? Or has he squeeze bunted a lot over his career? (The other day, Castillo was at the plate with one out and Pagan at third. Pagan ran home as the pitcher delivered, but Castillo had missed the sign and was swinging away. One would think that a player of his type would be familiar with such a play.) Or is it because he has been a leadoff hitter? Ah, if only someone had the time to rank players by career sac-fly rate normalized by team, era and batting order.

Willie Watch: MetsBlog Poll Disappears

Now that the Willie Randolph Approval Rating on MetsBlog has dipped below 50%, it has been removed from the front of the site. It had been appearing along with the "Fan Confidence in the Overall Direction of Team" rating, but since the latest poll, where Willie received a positive vote of 41%, it has been removed.

Is it possible that MetsBlog, which is owned by SNY, which is partially owned by the Mets, was ordered to make the poll less prominent? It is no secret that with such things opinions are quite fluid, and if opinion switches one way it can keep going that way. No need to encourage others.

In other Willie News, he remarked after Pelfrey's awesome performance last night:

Obviously, Pelfrey was outstanding. The kid threw the heck out of the ball tonight. He used everything he had…total game for him. That’s the way we want him to be…He’s growing, he’s maturing, and that’s the main thing for him. He gets better as he goes out there…Pelfrey is just learning how to pitch at this level. I mean, he’s gone through some growing pains, and he still needs to be more consistent with his location, but you can see he’s coming. He’s a kid with a good chance to be a quality major-league pitcher.

It's funny. Even in praising Pelfrey, Randolph loads his speech down with qualifiers and little jabs: He's growing, he's maturing... he's just learning how to pitch... growing pains... he still needs to be more consistent... he [has] a good chance. Seriously. That is not necessary. He needs to be more consistent? Even the best and most experienced pitchers have bad games. You're upset because Pelfrey threw a gem last night but doesn't throw a gem every time out? Sure he's learning, but there's also something called random fluctuation you should familiarize yourself with. Pelfrey has Chien-Ming Wang upside. He could be a really good pitcher, it's true. But Randolph's comments are just pointless. Whatever, I'm just nitpicking here. Cerrone continues his account:

Pelfrey was introduced to reporters while Randolph was wrapping up his comments and still sitting at the table, so Randolph smiled and said jokingly, “Oh he’s over there, and I was saying good things about it him, (sigh), never mind, never mind all that.”

Wait, so that was his example of "saying good things"? Using diminutive terms, calling him a "kid," saying that he needs to be more consistent? I guess, if that's the best he can do.

Good news on the Randolph front: yesterday Ryan Church hit second. Though he's a better option than Pagan and a much better option than Castillo, I don't expect this to last. Maybe it had to do with the left-hand pitcher, though why the left-handed Church gives more balance to the lineup than the switch-hitting Castillo, who hits better from the right side, I do not know.

Speaking of Castillo, who is disappointing everyone all of a sudden: I would like to remind everyone that I disagreed with the original trade, with the caveat that letting him go as a free agent would make it better, and I strongly opposed the signing before it even happened, calling a 4-year, $28 million deal for the old, mono-skilled Castillo my "worst case scenario." So when people write (and they will write) that nobody foresaw such a rapid decline, ignore them. Such a turn of events is sorry indeed, but far from unpredictable.

Lastings Watch: Game On

Milledge: .308/.351/.442, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 SO, 1 SB (.333 BABIP)
Church: .326/.383/.419, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 SO, 0 SB (.382 BABIP)
Schneider: .324/.409/.324, 0 HR, 6 BB, 5 SO, 0 SB (.375 BABIP)

Amazin' Avenue interviews Nationals bloggers We've Got Heart. On Lastings Milledge:

There have been moments that I've been impressed and moments where it's clear he's learning. He will steal a base or get a hit but then get out by making a silly base running move. I can forgive these mistakes in April, but if it continues throughout the season and costs us crucial outs, it will be much harder to forgive. He's also made some errors in the field by letting a single turn into an easy double, but it was reported that he's apologized to teammates for his mistakes. I think that shows signs of his willingness to learn and desire to improve. That said, he looks like he could be everything we were promised. He's enormously talented.

MetsBlog interviews Capitol Punishment on the same topic:

I really like his approach to the game. In the small number of games I’ve seen, he’s the kind of player that’s really fun to watch: a little bit of speed, a little bit of power, and just enough flash to keep you entertained. His first game or two, it looked like he was trying to do too much, but he’s settled in nicely, and I’d still make that trade 100 times out of 100.

As far as saying all the right things, what’s been telling is how it’s the other guys around him. Dmitri Young really welcomed him, pointing out that criticism of the high five incident was done mostly by people with sticks firmly lodged up their backsides. (Seriously, it was off Armando Benitez! What Mets fan wasn’t doing that happy dance after that one?)

Milledge, in a blowout earlier this week, dogged it in the middle of the game, and stood up, on his own, and apologized to the team, even though he was far from the only one to mail it in. He’s definitely making the most of his fresh start.

I just came across this gem from Steve Popper:

While I think many of Milledge's faults were overblown, I actually liked one that I'll retell for you in the cleanest terms I can. When the Mets beat up on the Marlins in the second to last game of the season last year, some of the Marlins contended that Milledge fired them up for the season finale with his home run trot/handshakes/antics. A few of us approached Milledge after the final game, the disappointing one-sided loss, and asked him if he had fired up the Marlins. His response - which should have spoken for all the Mets' fans - was, "fuck the Marlins."

Popper bleeped it, but I am not so delicate. Thanks for the story, Steve.

So far Brian Schneider has not showed any of that great defensive skill we've heard so much about; on the contrary, he has already allowed two passed balls and is one of only four major league catchers with more than one. The Mets are also tied for third the league with six wild pitches (none on Casanova). This isn't extremely meaningful, of course; it just goes to show that Schneider hasn't exactly sparkled defensively (though a new glove might be to blame). He has been surprisingly good on offense, partly because of his plate discipline and partly because of an unsustainably high BABIP.

All three players meet on the same field tonight, with the added bonus of Paul Lo Duca, who is hitting a predictably horrible .200/.317/.286, but with no cessation of the annoying habit of speaking his mind that characterized his Mets career. We've Got Heart:

It's pretty clear that Lo Duca will probably be a waist (sic) of money. Just days after being signed, his name came out in the Mitchell Report, which would have decreased his value. His other character flaws and indiscretions aside, fans are already tired of his attitude. We're a rebuilding team, not a contending team. Having Lo Duca mouth off every night about his frustrations just doesn't help, especially when his numbers don't match his talk. Sending Flores to the minors isn't as much about him learning and playing everyday as it is about Bowden not wanting to admit he made a mistake in signing Lo Duca and Estrada. My guess is that Flores is in triple A for a month or two. Once it becomes overwhelmingly clear that Lo Duca is washed up, Flores will be back as a starter with Lo Duca or Estrada as an occasional backup. I think the Lo Duca deal was one of the worst moves the Nats made this winter.

By the way, in case you didn't know, Lo Duca and tonight's starter Odalis Perez are not the best of friends.

Willie Watch: Waiting for Gutman

The MetsBlog Willie Randolph Approval Rating, about which I wrote in this seminal Mets Geek column when it stood at 89%, has hit an all-time low of 40%.

Typical Met fan despair? Or failure brought to light? Mets Today, which reminds us to "believe me when I tell you I sincerely LOVE Willie Randolph," writes:

Five days ago, Willie Randolph criticized Ollie Perez after six innings of shutout ball. Based on what happened in his latest start, I’ll go on a limb and say Willie’s tough love failed to motivate OP. Maybe he should try pumping the kid up instead of bringing him down. We’ve known all along that Ollie is something of a head case, a guy who needs confidence. Throwing him under the bus after 11 2/3 innings of shutout ball is a real head-scratcher.

Michael Salfino, who is an SNY.tv columnist and decidedly not a crank, writes:

Managers like Randolph who profess to have talking guts will never understand random variance. But a former player like Randolph should know that players need selective memories to thrive in the heat of competition that's at a level unimaginable to us fans. Focus on your successes, which in Reyes' case are considerable, and erase all failure from your brain.

If Randolph wants to find a reason for Reyes' poor second half, maybe he can look back to his very public benching for not running out a ground ball. You can make a reasonable case that triggered his slump. Just because Gary Cohen considers failing to run out grounders and popups high treason doesn't really make it a crime. There's not a player around who isn't guilty of this. Why selectively enforce it in such a public way?

Matt Cerrone, the biggest homer since Skip Carey, the official ungrammatical jock-sniffing blogger of the Mets, employee of SNY, and solid company man to the end, waxes and weaves and winds elliptically to this statement:

…i realize people get on willie, and rightfully so…i have a hard time with this, because, while i do not think he is passive, as most like to write, i do think he suffers from a bad case of tunnel vision and he is very, very trusting in his players…maybe to a fault…however, i like his style of baseball, i.e., aggressive base running, having a killer mentality and playing strong defense…my fear, though, is that, while the team may have some serious, high-priced talent, it may not be the type of talent best suited for willie’s style…and so, what we may be witnessing is a conflict of style playing out on the field, in the locker room and in the press…

That SNY employees are critical of Randolph, even though the in-game announcers are not, is interesting. Sterling Mets, LP owns about a third of SNY. Their holding in SNY is worth more than the Mets themselves.

What does all this mean? I guess Willie is losing public favor pretty fast. I honestly don't really care whether it's for a good reason or not, because there are good reasons why Randolph should never have been the manager of the Mets and it didn't take me long to realize it.

As for this booing of Mets at Shea Stadium, I don't know where I fall. I have been to one game at Shea Stadium in person in the last five years and I sat at the very top of the upper deck. I have not purchased any Mets "gear" in longer. The only money the Mets get from me is 1/30th of my $120 a year for MLB.tv, or $4, probably minus some operating costs. But I imagine that those fans who attend games regularly want to feel like they are getting their money's worth, and if they feel that the team isn't trying hard or that the wrong players are on the field or the manager is making a bad decision, they might be inclined to boo. It is easy for bloggers to take the high ground and tsk-tsk the booers, but the booers don't have blogs and thus need another way to air their frustrations. I prefer heckling and hissing, but the pedestrian catcall in vogue today is the boo, and as long as working class, piss-flavored-beer-swilling plain folk are allowed in the stadiums, they will boo players; and when those folk are loud, obnoxious New Yorkers, they are going to boo their own players too.

It's easy for me to say this stoically 2500 miles away, literally following my favorite team through the computer screen alone, not attending games, not going to Mets-related parties or blogging conventions, not seeing the Post and Newsday and whatever other papers you have in New York where they sprawl sort-of-clever sports headlines on the back pages and talking heads angrily say dumb things, and not hearing sports radio talk shows repeatedly redefining the lower limits of ignorance, so take my opinion on this matter for what it's worth.

But sometimes in sports (and in politics), the further away the viewer is, the more he sees. This is why bloggers and amateurs are often more insightful than journalists and professionals. They are far from the clichés, the clubhouse camaraderie, and the hero-worship. In this case, though, what do I know? I wouldn't boo Santana, but I'm not going to fault the guy who does. I mean, the whole stadium is full of loud, obnoxious cheers like "EVERYBODY CLAP YOUR HANDS!" and "Yankees suck," and people doing the wave and drinking eight dollar horse piss in big plastic cups. So people boo. It's not the opera, people.

About What?

Hahahaha.

After the pathetic 9-7 loss to the Brewers at Shea Stadium yesterday, Carlos Delgado was asked if he was disappointed, disgusted or angry. It was a simple question after the most sloppy of games.

Delgado shot back a quizzical look and asked, "About what?"

Oh snap!

I don't know, Carlos, how about when the Brewers, after fighting back for the lead Sunday afternoon, tried to give it back by bringing Guillermo Mota to the mound, up by only two. You guys got first and third and nobody out, of course, since Mota is one of the suckiest sucks to ever suck while at the same time possessing a blistering fastball and devastating changeup. Then Luis Castillo, the Juan Pierre Lite who at this point is basically just hoping to walk because he can't hit and can't run, hit a grounder to first that Prince Fielder took to the bag before firing home to nab Brady Clark, prized more for his right-handed batting style than his base-running ability. After that setback the Mets still loaded the bases for you, Mr. Delgado, and you popped that shit up to give your team nothing. Four baserunners in the inning, zero runs.

Kind of sucks, right?

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I'm going to start a long and difficult series of posts called "Ranking the GMs" or something like that. I'm going to go from #30 to #1. Please vote in the poll for the GM you think is the worst in baseball. Your vote will "help decide" my ranking.

Edit: Also, if you vote "Other," it would be great if you would indicate your choice and reasoning in the comments.

Lastings Watch

Lastings Milledge has one walk in 41 plate appearances, not an encouraging sign of improvement for the young outfielder who last year swung at more outside balls than he took, according to the Bill James Gold Mine. He doesn't whiff at the inside ball, but pitchers aren't going to throw it to him as long as he's such a fish on the other side of the plate.

Lastings really needs to improve in this area. If he doesn't, he could end up as a merely average-to-mediocre center fielder, a Preston Wilson type at best. Wilson had his value, but it wasn't quite Rondell White or Carlos Beltran, let alone Gary Sheffield.

As you can see by Lastings' pitch plot card, opposing pitchers are generally pounding the outside of his zone with sliders, curves and changeups, while whiffing him primarily on sliders away and fastballs up. Lastings has only swung and missed at two inside pitches, a curveball and a sinker; but has swung and missed at about ten outside sliders and a couple curveballs away. Pitchers have thrown him less than 30% fastballs, which is well below the league average of ~46%. He gets sliders more than 20% of the time (league average: ~16%), and almost 27% of the time against right-handers. In fact-- get this-- he has yet to record a single hit on a slider, despite seeing 64 of them to date. He has also seen 29 curveballs, resulting in... zero hits. He has seen 43 cutters, resulting in... zero hits. That's 136 sliders, curves and cutters that Lastings has been unable to put in play for a hit. All of his hits are off fastballs, sinkers and changeups. If I were throwing to him, I would give him as many breaking-balls as possible.

Of course, this is the kind of thing that young major league hitters need to work on and improve while they are still 22 or 23; they just need to have big league at-bats. There's no guarantee that Milledge will get better. Even if he turns out to be only average defensively as well, that's still quite valuable. But if there's no improvement at all in this area, the Mets will not have lost as much as we thought. They will still have lost-- there's almost no way to win that one-- but not terribly.

I still vote for the superstar projection.

Willie Watch

It won't happen for a month or so, but Willie Randolph is going to get fired. I honestly don't know whether this is a good thing or not, because I don't know who would replace him, and if it's Jerry Manuel or some other member of the Mets' current coaching staff, it probably won't make a lick of difference.

But if there's one thing that's good about MetsBlog, it's measuring the feeling of the mainstream fans. I imagine that the audience here (about 100 people a day, probably the same 100) is quite different from the MetsBlog populace (about 70,000 a day). No matter how right we are, what they think is way, way more important. And the most distilled form of their opinions is to be found in the polls. So, yes, it is important that Willie's approval rating fell from 81 to 56 percent in just one week. That 70,000 surely includes employees of Sterling Mets, LP.

And now, the usually positive and upbeat proprietor of that site has written an editorial proclaiming that "Willie's message must change." It is worth reading first for the novelty of the criticism and second for the salience of its points, if not for the shoddy grammar and hackneyed style that is typical of that author and his site:

…what’s more, i had hoped to see this team play out of the gate as though they had no choice but to redeem themselves for what happened last year…because, you know what, they have no choice…they need redemption, otherwise a whole lot of people will be looking for new jobs next season…i hoped that the Mets would remember the Collapse, not brush it off, using it is motivation to start hot, emotionally and in the standings, to send a message to us, the Braves, Phillies, etc, that this year will be different…

Indeed. How long will Randolph preach "a nice little rhythm" and defensively shoot down any criticism made by writers and fans, eschewing all wisdom in favor of the wisdom of his gut, which is slow and cantankerous and altogether wrong?

How can he fail to argue and spit and scream or even have a discussion with the umpires when Chase Utley leans into multiple pitches with no retribution, no hard fastballs in the back, nothing but three free trips to first base?

How long will the Mets allow this manager to perpetrate this message to his players: "we are here to earn paychecks, nothing more," a message that finds its way out on the field, into the stadium and the papers, upsetting our very notions of glory as sports fans?

Sit down, Lastings! No celebrations, José! We're not devastated. We're fine. You're the ones who are devastated. You fans, you boors in the seats. Get a job, loser.

How long? About a month, I think.

Game 6 Postmortem

This guy here on the left did not appear in the game. Willie's got a Gotay for him. He's not his guy.

When the Mets trailed 3-2 thanks to Show, So-So and Carlo, it was finally safe to bring in Strong Sad. And down by three, well, the game's out of reach and you might as well bring in the kid just out of AAA.

Brian Schneider, aka "One of the Best Defensive Catchers in the League," committed two passed balls. Chase Utley is good at leaning into pitches. MLB.tv sucks.

Don't expect any less of Schoeneweis and Sosa. To change now would be to not "trust my guys"; it would be to admit error. That is not going to happen.

Laughable, mang.

Edit: Feliciano was unavailable. Let's hope he's not punished and "suspended" for three more games full of Show-So goodness.

Progress

Ah, how fickle the fans are.

Did I have anything to do with that?

The Mets Are Depressing

It's Willie Randolph anointing Jorge Sosa as his "guy" while Pedro Feliciano gets garbage innings and barely plays. Nothing changes.

Every time I look at Brian Schneider I think of how Ramon Castro and Johnny Estrada would have been a fine platoon and they would not have cost...

Lastings Milledge, of whom I think every time I see Ryan Church.

It's depressing when Jose Reyes is bunting ahead of Luis Castillo, he of the career .358 slugging percentage.

You know that all season long we'll be saying

Schoeneweis for left-handers.
Sosa for right-handers.
Smith for right-handers.

Matt Wise vs. both, mop-up situations
Pedro Feliciano is better vs. lefties, but good vs. righties too
Aaron Heilman is better vs. righties, but good vs. lefties too
Billy Wagner is good vs. both

Leverage, leverage, leverage.

It's depressing because the more I learn about baseball I discover a few dispiriting things.

1) The Mets are just a flawed baseball organization.
2) Baseball is just a sport, the people who play it are jocks. Jocks mostly make up the ranks of baseball management.
3) There are much, much better run baseball organizations.

Game Notes, I Guess: Part Six Thousand

This make me really mad. Our manager, in addition to being really lame strategically, is also a total pushover. Not only does he fail to come out on the field to defend his players when atrocious calls are made against them, basically granting the umpires permission to fuck the Mets over, but he also lacks authority with them as well. Case in point:

Willie considered putting Raul Casanova in tonight for Ryan Schneider to give him some rest but Schneider talked him out of it.

It wouldn't be for "rest," by the way; it would be in order to gain a platoon advantage, since Schneider, a terrible hitter all around, is even worse against lefties. This isn't unique of course. Last year Paul Lo Duca managed to convince Randolph repeatedly to let him play even though he was injured and underperforming his already meager offensive standards, while the red-hot Ramon Castro sat on the bench. It really took until the last day of the season for Willie to realize that Castro was the better player.

“Gotay really is one dimensional. Gotay doesn’t play the outfield, he doesn’t play the corners. I like Gotay a lot but he didn’t fit into this team. I think Clark right now is a better bat off the bench. Clark can get on base, he can walk, he will scrap and battle. With the left handed dominance in our line up we need a Clark in there to give us an at bat.”

I don't even know what to say about this. It's especially infuriating because roster flexibility concerns like this are completely legitimate, but this isn't really relevant to the reasons why Gotay was denied the chance of playing regularly at second base last year, even when he was consistently successful. Randolph's complaints don't sound very accurate anyway. If Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson are both considered infielder/outfielders, despite being less than average at any position, why the hell can't Ruben Gotay play third base or left field? Whatever. The point is, Randolph is a total dick who just decides he doesn't like someone for some irrational reason and sticks to it. It's usually because the player is young and lacks experience, but it could be for other reasons too. Really, he's just a terrible manager all-around.

Setback #1

Just like that, heartbreak.

Somehow I take comfort that the first two games of 2008 mirror the last two of 2007. First, a great victory all-around. Then, terrible defeat.

Robert Andino, who hit the game-winning homer off Matt Wise, is familiar to me from the Albuquerque Isotopes, the Marlins' AAA affiliate. He looks pretty slick at shortstop, pretty terrible at the plate, and comes to bat to mainstream hip-hop music. One game I went to with my wife and one of her friends, and Andino impressed them with some slick dance moves during pre-inning warm-ups.

Enjoy your 15 minutes, dude. Wait, what happened?

"Yes, Joe, It's Toasted" provides a nightmare scenario with regards to Pedro Martinez. I don't know. My guess: out for a month, Jorge Sosa makes a start or two, maybe El Duque gets back in action, and Nelson Figueroa takes the mound once or twice.

Figueroa is a 32-year old journeyman from Brooklyn who really lives up to that title. Last year he was the MVP of the Taiwan Series, the first ever foreigner to win that award. He also pitched for two different Mexican teams and a Dominican team last year. Figueroa was originally drafted by the Mets in the 30th round of the 1995 amateur draft as a 21-year old college student. He was traded to the Diamondbacks in the 1998 Bernard Gilkey deal, pitched for Arizona in 2000 and then traded to Philadelphia with three other players for Curt Schilling. He went on to play for the Phillies, Brewers, and Pirates before missing all of 2005 due to rotator cuff surgery. In 2006 he signed a minor league contract with the Nationals and couldn't make their rotation, spending the year in AAA New Orleans (then a Washington affiliate). In 2007 he began his tour to Mexico, Taiwan, the Dominican Republic and back to Mexico again. He impressed the Mets enough in the Caribbean Series for them to give him a contract. This is a chance for a hometown boy to make good. Tissues all around.

Also, did we sign Barry Bonds yet?

Blogging About Baseball Games: Part Whatever

Games the Mets Have Played in 2008 without Barry Bonds: 2.

There really is no good excuse why the Mets have not acquired a Kevin Mensch-type right handed hitting outfielder with a strong platoon split. That's kind of like why we have a General Manager and a front office behind him. So we can find players to make our team better. Mensch himself was available, so were a lot of other suitable candidates. Instead Angel Pagan is the dude against lefties. The dude is a career .219/.280/.406 hitter against lefties and yet he was batting fifth for the Mets on opening day. That is a failure. By the way, Pagan is a career .280/.337/.373 hitter in the minor leagues.

Is Oliver Perez the Mets third starter, and not John Maine, because he has more major league experience? Because it should be clear that Maine is the better pitcher.

Pedro is not looking good.

The Mets' offense is really unhealthy when one can name three hitters in the lineup worse than Luis Castillo.

I've only seen like 1 1/3 games so far, but Schneider just looks like a catcher. Nothing spectacular there. He better have been hitting against the lefty yesterday just because it was opening day and the Mets didn't want to hurt his feelings, not because the Mets intend to use him regularly against left-handers.

You know what would really balance this lineup out? If one of the Mets' left-handed hitting outfielders with severe weaknesses against left-handers were a right-hander who could hit lefties. If we could replace say, Ryan Church, with say, Lastings Milledge. Well, Milledge is asking a little too much. Young, extremely talented and cheap. Someone else, though.

Also if our #2 hitter wasn't a slap-hitting bunt-a-thon out there. How come no one calls Luis Castillo "scrappy"?

Here, I'm going to predict the standings in the AL West:

1) Athletics
I know I picked the Angels over at Mets Geek, but that was before I knew about Kelvim Escobar's injury. I never really liked the Angels anyway. Their offenses are slightly less egregious than the Dodgers. Overrating Gary Matthews Jr. one year and Torii Hunter the next. Plus, this is where David Eckstein and Darin Erstad came from. Oh, this is about the Athletics. They might just be good enough to beat the overrated Angels and Mariners, despite the fire sale. In fact, the fire sale might have given them some talent that could help them out late in the season.

2) Angels
3) Mariners
I bet the there are more Mets blogs out there than any other team blogs, even Yankees blogs. Yankees fans are a mindless brood by and large, and even though it doesn't take much intelligence or skill to make and maintain a blog, I think even attaining those meager standards are difficult for the simple-minded fanatics that share the New York name. Did that sentence make sense? What's going on? Oh right. There's lots of Mets blogs. But there aren't even two that are as good as USS Mariner and Lookout Landing, both Mariners blogs. And they both kind of indicate that the Mariners fucked up by trading Adam Jones AND a zillion other players for Erik Bedard.

Rangers:
I know so little about the Rangers, except that they signed A-Rod to a huge contract that was actually probably a good deal for them, except that they traded him to the Yankees with money for Alfonso Soriano. Then they traded Soriano for such winners as Armando (not Andres) Galarraga, Brad Wilkerson and Termel Sledge. They must have some good young players or something. Hell, they could finish second.

Damnit David Wright, throw the ball straight.