Please return and analyze this 12 player trade I just read about.
It looks like the Mets dealt Heilman, Chavez, Vargas, Maikel Cleto, Mike Carp, and Ezequiel Carrera for J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed. Reed seems to be a Chavez replacement, Sean Green is an average bullpen arm, and J.J. Putz instantly becomes one of the top setup men in the game behind K-Rod.
So the Mets' bullpen at the moment is something like: Feliciano, Schoenweis, Sanchez, Green, Putz, K-Rod - with the possibility for the return of Ambiorix Burgos.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
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13 comments:
Ambiorix Burgos is going to jail for vehicular manslaughter.
As per trade.
Putz >> Heilman
Green << Smith
It seems like once you factor in the value of the numerous C prospects the mets dealt, plus the contracts it would be a WAR/$ loss for the mets but an absolute WAR gain.
Mr. Peterson has a minimal discount of the future, and as a result will probably and fairly loath the deal.
At least Putz is nasty.
What about Brian Stokes? He was pretty decent last year and I think he would be a solid middle reliever.
Oh, that's right re: Burgos. See, that's why he needs to come back. Or shut this down. He'll probably be upset I did this.
Stokes seems like a solid option to be the long reliever.
Also, about youth: if you graphed potential savings on one axis and performance on another for young players, I think the graph would be exponential, not linear. What I mean is that while people like Mr. Peterson don't like it when the Mets simply throw away bales of young players, if their potential is merely to be fill-in guys or a little better (e.g. Angel Pagan, etc.), you can always find those guys elsewhere - it's a little more expensive, but won't break the bank. Mike Carp is the only guy with serious potential, but word on the street was that his glove couldn't even handle 1B.
I think it's damn near impossible for anyone to have a problem with the Johan Santana trade now, a year later, and I feel like a fool for thinking the Mets got swindled there.
When did Omar Minaya turn into Ed Wade?
@ Paul Sean Green is a slightly better (albeit older) version of Joe Smith.
Also, what catcher prospects.
i still don't like the santana trade. also, cleto and carrera both have potential. i'm not sure why you'd think otherwise.
i don't see how anyone reasonable can not like the santana trade at this point. carlos gomez can't play corner outfield, so he was blocked on the mets. humber would be nice to have now, but he's still looking like a back of the rotation guy. mulvey also. guerra had a 5.47 ERA in A+ with a 1:1 K:BB ratio, so he's worthless.
so basically you gave up a potentially league average CF (toolsy but he can't take a walk), two pitchers whose top ends are a #3, and a random minor league arm, for one of the best pitchers in baseball. i was with you e poc, and i don't think i'm being results-oriented here either - it's just not possible to not like that deal.
put another way - do you think the twins fans are happy with their return?
i don't really care what twins fans think, but why would they be upset about trading away one year of the best pitcher in baseball, getting closer to the playoffs without him than we did with him, and having four cheap, young, useful players instead of two compensatory draft picks after letting santana walk because they can't afford him? are they still upset because they didn't get phil hughes or clay buccholz? how did those guys look last year?
calling guerra "worthless" after a bad year at the age of 20 is the same kind of thing that makes you say that cleto has no potential at the age of 19. that's ridiculous. why can't gomez play a corner? if endy can, gomez can. and gomez is still very young. there's still a ton of potential there, although i guess it's refreshing to hear a mets fan turning his back on a non-mets prospect who struggled after being rushed (and his defense and baserunning just about make up for his offense already). i don't have high hopes for humber, but back-of-the-rotation guys are valuable when they play for minimum wage. and to top it all off, we're paying the best pitcher in baseball free agent money. i don't know whether you're considering that everything we gave up in that trade only bought us one year of santana (and even in that year we tore up his under-market contract and paid him free agent dollars instead). would we be worse off if we'd kept those players and signed santana or sabathia this offseason instead? because that's the obvious alternative. the only sense in which that was a good trade is that santana is a better player than all the people we gave up. but there's a lot more to a trade than that.
Triumph is a Yankees fan. I think he might be forgetting the matter of Santana's contract.
On the whole, I think each of you could probably find a more reasonable assessment in the direction of the other's assessment.
I'm not forgetting the matter of Santana's contract - but marginal wins were probably worth more to the Mets than any other team during last year's offseason. So, yes, was one year of Santana worth giving up back of the rotation arms and a 4th outfielder? Probably - not knowing what the market would be for pitchers this off-season, Omar gambled that he might not be able to entice Santana (or Sabathia) to Queens, and that he might have to pay a higher price tag if he did.
Can Endy Chavez play a corner outfield spot? Sure. Can he do so even at a replacement level? Not really - so why are we even debating such a thing? Yes, Chavez had one season where he outhit his career rates and played corner outfield for the Mets, and Gomez will almost certainly have such a season during his career, but he is not a player I would lament giving up - his 6:1 strikeout:walk ratio portends a poor future - I wonder what his PECOTA would look like after this past season, right now it projects a replacement-level CF.
Do Cleto and Guerra have some potential? Sure. But how many pitchers overcome mediocre starts such as theirs? I'm aware that some do - but Cleto had a strikeout per half inning in A+, and Guerra had a 1:1 K:BB ratio - neither of these things bode well for even a back-of-the-bullpen pitcher. Guerra's PECOTA card from 2007 (so pre-Santana and his 2008) forecasts him as a sub-replacement pitcher - and obviously PECOTA takes into account improvement with age. Potential is twofold - first of all the probability that a player becomes a useful major league player, and then their upside once they do reach the major leagues. Unless the player is 'toolsy', the two are highly correlated - a player not likely to make the major leagues is also not likely to make an impact even if he does get there.
yeah, you win.
i don't know whether you're considering that everything we gave up in that trade only bought us one year of santana (and even in that year we tore up his under-market contract and paid him free agent dollars instead). would we be worse off if we'd kept those players and signed santana or sabathia this offseason instead? because that's the obvious alternative.
(1) If we hadn't made that trade, we wouldn't have enjoyed Santana's services in 2008. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I have to believe Johan was worth 4-5wins compared to an average pitcher.
(2) There's no guaruntee we would have been able to sign a Sabathia or a Santana this offseason.
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