This is interesting. The Marlins are supposed to be a contender the NL East, but it's no secret their pitchers have seriously over-performed and are due for a regression, even though they are only 14th of 16 in the league in team ERA. Instead of shoring themselves up in that apartment, the Florida organization has apparently made their already-superb offense even better and their already-terrible defense even worse.
I hope the Mets don't feel the need to "answer."
Edit: Does this mean the Red Sox could be making a play for Jason Bay?
Edit: Am I clairvoyant or what?
Edit: Dave Cameron weighs in:
Florida paid a high price for the Hermida/Ramirez upgrade, believing that Manny’s extra offense could push them into the playoffs. But Jeremy Hermida is no slouch himself. The in-seaosn Marcel tool has him at .276/.352/.458 for the rest of the season, compared to it’s .287/.386/.517 projection for the rest of Manny’s 2008. Clearly, Manny’s better, but like with the Teixeira-Kotchman trade, the upgrade isn’t huge.Since I basically just ripped the whole post, I should tell you: Fan Graphs keeps getting better and better.
In fact, over the course of 237 PAs (the projected total for Hermida), Marcel thinks the offensive difference between the two is about seven runs. The offensive difference… seven runs. Manny’s also a pretty horrible fielder (though the Green Monster makes most zone based stats overstate how bad), and the defensive difference between the two is nearly as large as the offensive difference (The Fielding Bible has Hermida as +4 plays so far in 2008 with Ramirez at -15). Even over two months, the defensive difference between the two will almost certainly be worth at least 3 or 4 runs, and that’s being really kind to Manny. It’s certainly possible that Manny is as bad as UZR, +/-, and the rest all think, and the defensive difference over two months is closer to 10 runs.
In fact, it’s arguable that this trade will actually make the Marlins worse for the rest of 2008. Their two best hitters, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are both right-handed, and adding Manny to that now makes the middle of their line-up much more susceptible to right-handed specialists. It’s a minor thing, but when they’re not getting a player substantially better than the one they’re giving up, the minor things can make a difference.
When you factor both offense and defense into the equation, this is basically a push for Florida. This wouldn’t make them better by any real margin, and it would cost them significant future assets.
3 comments:
Well, yeah I think its funny that the Marlins are alright with making their already weak defense even worse.
I would try to hit it to the left side all day with Manny out there in that big outfield.
Get the popcorn ready and enjoy the circus in leftfield.
The deal makes sense for the MArlins in that they will get two draft picks at the end of the year, Manny will probably walk next year, and they will have a huge hole in their line-up with the absence of Hermida. Cameron Maybin is not going to assuage that hit the line-up will take. Additionally, there is a dearth of offensive options in next years free agent class.
John, do you think Dan Murphy actually has a good enough glove to play second base in the bigs? I saw this because I would like the Mets to admit they were wrong eat CAstillos contract and go get O-dog. He would be the perfect solution for our defense and offense.
-cpb
I haven't seen Murphy play second, but I sure hope he is good enough, because his bat would definitely play at second. The Mets have had subpar production from 2B for too long.
Let's see. The Mets have had such fluctuation and disappointing production at the position that they will tend toward a veteran. Luis Castillo will probably he plugged in there for as long as he can stand.
Ty Wiggington, Jeff Keppinger, Ruben Gotay... all of them were good and cheap enough (I guess Wiggington's defense wasn't very good). Hopefully Murphy progresses well and the Mets give the job to him. I do like the move to 2B.
It's days like today that make me appreciate Omar Minaya a little more. He didn't go and get Manny while Ned Colletti did. I have no idea what the hell LA thinks its doing, but I guess I should give the Dodgers credit for not giving Kershaw, Broxton, or someone else good to Pittsburgh, along with LaRoche.
Meanwhile, Ed Wade adds LaTroy Hawkins to his bizarre history of pointless middle relief acquisitions. Hawkins and Randy Wolf are just what Houston needs to....beat out Pittsburgh (and maybe Cincinnati).
-Greenpoint Ian
Post a Comment