Milledge, Church, and ZiPS

From the trade discussion at Baseball Think Factory:



2008 ZiPS Projection - Ryan Church
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 410 54 112 31 1 17 63 48 99 3 .274 .356 .482
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Opt. (15%) 460 71 137 38 2 24 92 61 98 3 .298 .386 .546
Pes. (15%) 267 29 65 16 0 8 38 26 69 0 .243 .315 .393
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Top Comps: Ruppert Jones, Gus Bell

2008 ZiPS Projection - Lastings Milledge
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 392 55 108 20 4 15 60 42 88 7 .276 .360 .462
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Opt. (15%) 547 91 162 33 6 28 98 71 107 12 .296 .390 .532
Pes. (15%) 362 44 89 17 2 12 48 36 85 3 .246 .323 .403
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Top Comps: Andruw Jones, Curt Flood

2008 ZiPS Projection - Brian Schneider
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 365 29 87 14 0 5 38 41 62 1 .237 .317 .316
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Opt. (15%) 399 37 107 18 0 6 41 49 55 1 .258 .353 .358
Pes. (15%) 228 13 48 6 0 1 15 20 42 0 .211 .277 .250
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps: Johnny Oates, Jorge Fabregas

2009:
Milledge 2009: 286/365/500
Top Comps: Rondell White, Andruw Jones (Flood down to 3rd)

Church 2009: 263/344/461
Top Comps: Don Lock, Gus Bell

Projections courtesy of Dan Szymborksi. Enjoy.

A Noble Spin

Nothing makes us feel better after our favorite player on our favorite team is traded to a division rival on our birthday for considerably less than full value than reading some asinine piece of bullshit from Marty Noble. Nothing.

Mets land Church, Schneider from Nats
Outfielder Milledge departs in deal intended to improve depth

Or, Stalin announces glorious new Five-Year Plan
Country excited about continued development

NEW YORK -- Convinced that they didn't undermine their chance to trade for a front-of-the-rotation pitcher by dealing Lastings Milledge, the Mets addressed two lesser yet critical needs on Friday when they acquired catcher Brian Schneider and left-handed-hitting outfielder Ryan Church from the Nationals.

Of course, he goes on to describe how Brian Schneider ("one of the better defensive catchers in the league") is at least somehow marginally better than Castro and Estrada. Or how 23-year old Lastings Milledge, who, six years younger than Ryan Church, is not a comparable offensive and defensive player, and is not expected to improve far beyond the capabilities of the newly acquired outfielder. Oh, wait, no he doesn't.

At a seemingly reasonable price,

Just a young, major-league ready outfielder with excellent potential, nothing much. Omar = genius.

the Mets solidified their outfield and their catching, balanced their batting order and brought in a veteran presence in Schneider.

Finally, some veteran presence on this team! It's about damn time the rookies stepped aside.

Seriously though, we know that Schneider ("one of the better defensive catchers in the league") has a good reputation as a defender, but is he good enough to account for his 82 OPS+? Does it make him significantly better than Johnny Estrada (career 86 OPS+), who will presumably now be hired as the Nationals' catcher, once the Mets dump him? Speaking of Nationals' catchers, the only reason the Nationals could afford to dump Schneider was because they were able to steal Jesus Flores from the Mets last year, after Omar Minaya left him unprotected for the Rule 5 draft.

By "balanced the batting order," we assume that Noble is referring to Church's left-handed bat, not the career .252 batting average of Brian "one of the better defensive catchers in the league" Schneider. We'll give him that point. The Mets desperately needed a new Shawn Green. It was critical, even.

At the same time, they now can make Johnny Estrada available in a trade at least until Dec. 12, when they must tender him a contract or allow him to leave as a free agent.

No one is trading for Johnny Estrada. Except the Mets.

In dealing Milledge, the Mets lose a 22-year-old outfielder who has had issues on and off the field in two partial seasons with the big league team but still is a highly regarded offensive talent. Milledge's batting right-handed and his occasional defensive shortcomings in left and right field diminished his value to the Mets, who now can have three switch-hitters, three right-handed hitters and -- when Church plays right field -- two left-handed hitters in their most regular lineup.

RAP MUSIC! He looked shaky in the field once or twice! WHERE ARE THE PROVEN VETERANS?

Also, we would like to disagree with Noble's contention that Lastings missing a play or two in the outfield diminished his value to the Mets, but we might be wrong. They traded him for peanuts, after all.

But the fact that Milledge bats right-handed doesn't mean shit. It's true that Shea Stadium favors left-handed batters and is brutal on righties, but 1- the Mets have only one more year in Shea, and 2- Noble probably doesn't know that. He's just oohing and aahing at some pretty lineup parallelism.

The two-for-one deal came after sources in Mets management said that the timing of a deal for a starting pitcher might interfere with the club's pursuit for a catcher in that the Mets wanted to hold their primary trading chips to fill the void at the front of their rotation.

See, that means the Mets got the better of it and acquired depth. Two players for the price of one! A real bargain!

Schneider,

("one of the better defensive catchers in the league")

who turned 31 on Wednesday, is a definite upgrade behind the plate over Estrada, who was acquired in a trade with the Brewers on Nov. 20.

We're willing to concede that he's an upgrade, but we want some numbers! No? Just reputation? Just "one of the better defensive catchers in the league"? Okay.

No mention of controversy. Just a solid analysis by Noble. We feel comforted.

FUCK

Mets trade Milledge. For Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.

Wow. Just wow.

What a simply horrible trade.

Kazmir, Part 2.

Milledge for a league-average outfielder and a mediocre catcher.

Lastings will outperform Church next year.

Simply amazingly bad.

What the fuck? Can this be true?

Assembling the 2008 Mets, Part Four: Other Pitchers, Section A: Starters

Previous Posts in this Series:
Part 1: Mets' Position Players
Part 2: Mets' Pitchers
Part 3-A: Other Position Players, Outfielders
Part 3-B: Infielders
Part 3-C: Catchers

Lots has been said on this subject already. Let's start with the silly, but unfortunately mainstream opinion:

If the Mets' "next year" were to begin today, their starting rotation would have a certain translucent quality. It is that thin -- thinner than it was when their 2007 season ended, thinner than it was when last season began, too thin even for the demands of 162 games.

That's just not true, Marty Noble. As much as we have grown to resent you, we have grown to appreciate you as well. For you provide the easiest counterpoint: a straw man, but somehow with authority.

Last year the Mets actually had one of the best starting rotations in the National League, even without Pedro Awesome Martinez for most of the year. Their starters' ERA was 5th best in the National League. Maybe you want it to be even better, but calling it "thin" is just inaccurate. The rotation also gave up the third fewest walks and struck out more batters than any rotation but the Cubs in the National League. Thin? Translucent? Far from it. In fact, with Pedro coming back, the rotation has the chance to be dominant.

Oliver Perez and John Maine, who to Noble are no more than #3 starters, were two of the top 20 or 30 pitchers in the National League last year. They were 9th and 17th in ERA; Glavine, whose departure means doom for the Mets according to some, was 25th. Among starters with 140 innings or more, they were 3rd and 7th in K/9 (El Duque was 11th). And next year they will be 26 and 27.

We won't bother with the rest of the article, which somehow presents the situation as being dire, when it's really not. Appeals like that one, or this one, where Joel Sherman quotes (probably fictitious) rival GMs saying kind-of dumb things, aren't really helpful.

On the other hand, there are sane offerings out there on this subject, like this one by Ted Berg, and this one by Ruslan Abouhassan of Mets Geek. Berg in particular has some interesting suggestions, including a fleecing of lesser Bay Area GM Brian Sabean. It has been reported that Tim Lincecum is available for a "stud outfielder" or "quality bat." Berg would prefer Matt Cain. Interesting.

Now we'll go through and consider each candidate in turn, trying to keep it brief.

Johan Santana, Twins: Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, and the Twins are trading him. Some have suggested that Santana, who is 28, has already started to decline. However, we agree with David Pinto that Santana will be a very good pitcher for years to come. That's not the issue. The issue is that Santana will cost a lot of young, cheap, good players and then a lot of years and money, all invested in one fallible arm. While we'll continue to hear reports of how involved the Mets are, in the end, we will not get him. At least, that's what we're hoping for. First, the Mets do not need Santana. Second, it is a much healthier move going forward to get the most value from one's young, cheap players than to go out there and get the best guy possible at whatever cost. When one runs a franchise like a fantasy team, this is what happens. (That will never get old.) Possible trade: Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey and some other prospect for Johan Santana. Why it won't happen: With Garza traded, the Twins are going to want two young major-league ready pitchers, and they don't seem attracted to Humber and Pelfrey. Speculation that the Mets are going to send Jose Reyes to Minnesota is just that: speculation.

Dan Haren, Athletics: Haren is not as good as Santana, but likely to cost nearly as much, since he's under contract for three more years at $5.5 million per. Let's just say this much: Billy Beane stole Haren from the Cardinals when they really thought Mark Mulder was the shit. Do the Mets think they can play with that kind of fire and not get burned? But they're "focused on" Haren or Blanton, according to David Lennon of Newsday. Why it won't happen: Beane will only pull the trigger if he's ripping the Mets off; the Mets won't pull the trigger if they think they're being ripped off. That's what we're hoping, anyway.

Erik Bedard, Orioles: The best option of the best three starters available. We're amazed that the Orioles would shop Bedard, who's only 28, is two years from free agency and led the world in K/9 last year. But hey, when you're bad like the Orioles, you're just bad. There are other reports that the Orioles would like to sign him to an extention. (Or maybe they would trade the young Daniel Cabrera, who went 9-18 last year but could get a lot better.) There's a report that the Orioles aren't picky; they just want a lot of solid young players to fill out their system, and they'll sort them out when all's said and done. That seems kind of sloppy and desperate, but hey, it's their team.

Joe Blanton, Athletics: Frankly, we're tired of the Mets being portrayed as desperate big market suckers ready to be fleeced by Billy Beane. We'll trade you, I dunno, fatso here. Give us your top pitching prospect (Pelfrey) and your starting right fielder (Milledge). Fuck off, Beane.

Honestly, though, Blanton is a solid pitcher, we guess. He'll only be 27 next year, he's started 33, 31 and 34 games the last three seasons, and he's like three years away from free agency. But he's one of those low strikeout, low groundball control pitchers we want everyone to start disparagingly calling "Southwest Quadrant" types. Of these guys Rich Lederer writes:

This is the quadrant that you want to avoid. It is inhabited by some of the worst starters in the game. If you fail to miss bats and don't keep the ball on the ground when it is put into play, you are going to run into trouble. There is basically only one way to survive in this quadrant: throwing strikes and maintaining a low walk rate... But these types of pitchers live on the edge with very little margin for error.

Let's avoid trading everyone for that.

Carlos Silva, Free Agent: Guess where Silva resides? That's right, the Southwest Quadrant. Dave Cameron of the U.S.S. Mariner recently called Silva a "free agent landmine," writing The strike throwing, no outpitch hurler is just a very easy skillset to find in a pitcher. Throwing a huge amount of money at Carlos Silva simply because he’s proven is a gigantic waste of resources. Nevertheless, he's sure to be paid big bucks because of a "gaudy" 4.31 career ERA, which is even worse than it looks because he has played his entire career on artificial turf with a superior defense. The Mets should definitely not consider signing Carlos Silva.

Kyle Lohse, Free Agent: See above. Lohse is not exactly Southwest Quadrant (career 5.68 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, fly ball tendencies), but he's still a terrible option. Cameron again: Every single 2008 Triple-A rotation will have at least one guy who could give you 95% of Kyle Lohse’s production for 3% of the cost. In an efficient market where major league teams understood how to evaluate pitchers, Lohse would be lucky to get more than a few million dollars on a one year deal.

Livan Hernandez, Free Agent: We've gone back and forth on Livan. Tim Marchman likes him:

Hernandez [is] no prize, but he's pitched at least 200 innings every year since 1998, save the year he pitched 199.2 innings, and he's basically as good as Glavine was this year, with slightly more potential to do something like post a 3.50 ERA. Notably, he's a fly ball pitcher who spent last season with Arizona, which plays its home games in an unforgiving hitter's park; in spacious Shea, with a strong outfield defense behind him, he should do well. He's not a glamorous name, but he'll give the team what it needs, and all he'll cost is money.

That's a solid estimation, but our response: why bother? Livan is a crappy pitcher who will have to rely on luck to win games, and he'll still lose just as many. Last year he walked about as many people as he struck out and gave up 247 hits, including 34 home runs, in 204 1/3 innings. Sure he'll improve a little moving to Shea, but all he'll cost is money that would not have to be spent on Pelfrey or Humber, who could easily be just as mediocre and have a chance to be a lot better.

Dontrelle Willis, Marlins: Abouhassan likes the idea of Willis. He makes a good point:

It is my opinion that Dontrelle Willis has been hurt a great deal by the horrific defense the Marlins have played the last two seasons. Willis is a groundball pitcher, and every infielder the Marlins employ in their starting lineup is below average. In 2005, Willis pitched in front of excellent defense and had his best season, and I think Dontrelle would benefit a great deal from the huge defensive upgrade from Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez to David Wright and Jose Reyes would provide.

Dan Uggla and Mike Jacobs are also terrible defenders. The question is, what's the cost? The Mets have made plenty of big deals with the Marlins, but never for a player as young as Willis (he'll be 26 next season). If we were trading for Willis we would have to have a lot of medical and scouting information, as his huge drop-off in production since 2005 is no minor concern. There is no obvious reason to expect Willis to get better, but at 26 he could easily return to 2005 form. Abouhassad's explanation that the Marlins' infield defense is the cause is as good an explanation as any. If the price reflects Dontrelle's diminishing production and not his past glory, he's a good pickup. Otherwise, he's too risky to throw a bunch of prospects at.

Bartolo Colon: Cameron called him "the hidden gem of free agent pitchers." It's an article worth reading. Cameron compares Bartolo to El Duque after 2005, when he was supposed to be "on his last legs." The Mets benefited from that miscalculation, and got him for free (practically).

Colon, if you remember, was the guy Omar traded all those prospects for back when he was given control of the Expos as somebody's idea of a joke. (By the way, that link is funny because it's not at all clear in the article just how much the Expos got completely robbed.) Maybe he'd like to get the guy for just money this time. Incidentally, Omar later traded Colon for El Duque. He needs to complete the circle. (Not really.)

Others (Rapid Bonus Round)
Freddy Garcia, Free Agent: Used to be a workhorse, now he's out until the middle of 2008. Unlike Abouhassan, we think the Mets-- and everyone else-- should be interested. He's just not any sort of solution, more of a project.
Jose Contreras, White Sox: A solid low buy in terms of trading chips but $20 million over the next two years is a lot.
Shawn Chacon, Free Agent: Southwest quadrant.
David Wells, Free Agent: It's not even worth looking up a link for where we heard about the Mets being interested, but with Omar (see: Nestorian Wonder), we shouldn't count him out.
Matt Cain, Giants: Are the Giants rally trading these guys, or are they just fucking around? Sure it's true, as Berg says, that Sabean has been fleeced in the past and will likely be fleeced again in the future but surely he must be able to see the value in a 22-year old pitcher who is a no-hitter waiting to happen, right? No one relies on W-L record anymore but stupid newspaper writers and casual fans. But if the Giants want Gomez for him, fine. Gomez and Mulvey, if they want.
Tim Lincecum, Giants: Same here. Berg writes, Lincecum also has ace potential, but I'm less convinced. He has struck out a stunning 254 batters in just under 200 professional innings, but his violent, unorthodox delivery and lack of experience concern me. Eh, we understand what he means, but this guy is pretty damn good. They said Scott Kazmir was bound for injury too.
Noah Lowry, Giants: Older and more experienced as the other two; also, not as good. We've got a number for you: 4.9. Is that Lowry's K-rate or his BB-rate? Answer: both. We don't see any reason why, from ages 23-26 his walk and strikeout rates moved toward each other until they converged, but it's definitely not a good sign.
Matt Clement, Free Agent: The Mets don't seem like they're in the market for reclamation projects, but if they are, Clement is a great option. A high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate are a good combination.

That's all we have the stomach for right now. Basically it seems like the Mets are doomed to either dump a bunch of good prospects for an ace pitcher, or overpay for a mediocre one. However, as we've been saying all along, they should really just look at their own staff and realize that it's not so bad.

Nothing good will come out of The Collapse. It didn't see the end of Randolph, and now it will likely bring about a move designed to impress, to show that we didn't let failure crush us, that we're coming back stronger. Would winning one or two more games have made this unnecessary?

In the end, were we truly "assembling the 2008 Mets," we would simply stand pat. Right now, the Mets are good enough to win the NL East.

Some Good News

Steve Popper writes in his Bergen Record blog, Amazin' Stories:

You may not want to hear this, but he said that he's not going to overpay for one of the pitchers being shopped on the trade market. He spoke about his faith in John Maine and Oliver Perez and said that the team that starts in April might not be the team that finishes the season. In other words, he's not giving up the team to get a marginal upgrade to the rotation.

What's with these newspaper bloggers and their inappropriate reactions? Hey, don't shoot the messenger, but Omar says he thinks Castro can start. Shoot you? Are you crazy?

Here, we are given a flash of sanity amongst reports that the Mets are desperate and will trade anyone Billy Beane wants for Joe Blanton, and will give Carlos Silva $12 million a year for four years.

That pitching post is coming. Seriously, guys. We have a job and stuff.

Wagner Throws Baseball Well, Analyzes Baseball Poorly

Courtesy of our favorite curmudgeon, Marty Noble, some candid words from the Mets' closer.

Someone asked me what I thought of our team... We've lost 13 games [Glavine's victory total], and now we are going have to give up something to get those games back.

Not really. Presumably the Mets will pitch someone in Glavine's spot every fifth day. Mr. Virginia Alpaca farm needs to familiarize himself with the concept of replacement level. And the Mets have more than just Jose Lima and Chan Ho Park as contingencies.

We've brought back some people, and that's good. But losing Tom is big. It's a lot more than the 13 games he won. It's what he did for John Maine and Oliver Perez and how professional he was. People want to focus on one bad game or just the day-to-day stats. I do that myself when I read about football. By I'm involved in this, and I know how important [Glavine] was. We don't have him [in 2007], and we don't even get to the last game with a chance. He was one of the few leaders we had.

Fine. But he already helped Maine and Perez, and his professionalism didn't help him from ruining the Mets season in a third of an inning on the last day of the year. Only veteran players like you and sportswriters who judge a player's worth by his interview skills will miss Tom Glavine. At this point he is not a very good pitcher anymore.

We don't need leaders like Tommie (in)Tolerable. Pedro, El Duque, etc. are old enough. We know you don't like young players.

We're down 13 games already, plus all the games Tom deserved to win... Without Aaron, it'd be like another 10 or 12. It would be a big chance to take. Without Aaron, [the bullpen] don't even exist. No way you can trade him.

Do you really believe, Billy Wagner, that Aaron Heilman provides 10 or 12 wins above what a replacement player would provide at his position? He is a relief pitcher. He's good, but he pitched 86 innings last year. You would have to be the best pitcher ever to provide 10 wins in 86 innings.

By the way, we're pretty sure Alex Rodriguez led the world in WARP3 last year with a 13.7. Tom Glavine is nowhere close to Alex Rodriguez. But you knew that.

"[Hernandez] pitches great for five games and then can't pitch for two weeks... If we put him in the bullpen, we're going to ask him to pitch three times a week. Can he take that?

Starters throw like 200 innings a year. Relievers throw like 80. Maybe we're just a snarky blogger who's never played the game and thus knows nothing, but it seems like 80 is easier than 200.

Maybe he wasn't the best receiver. I don't know. But Paulie competed... He battled every day, and we had some guys who didn't show up every day. They were satisfied if they got a hit and we lost. Paul was [angry] if he had four hits and we lost. And every one of the pitchers trusted him. He was a big part of what we did [in 2006], and now he's gone, too. ... It just worries me that we're missing some important guys.

You know who else battled? Art Howe's crew. They sucked. Maybe we're wrong, but maybe you think that some guys "compete" more than others because they have less skill and thus make it look like they try harder, because, you know, they are sycophantic assholes; or they have terrible personalities like Paul Lo Duca, and they put everyone on edge and make them play worse. You're worried. You're afraid of change. You're old, man.

We like Billy Wagner. We like players who speak their minds. But why anyone listens to what they have to say, we're not sure. Players shouldn't run professional sports organizations. This is what happens when they do.

Baseball Mogul: The Mets through 2015

This future is brought to you by Baseball Mogul.

2007:
Before the 2007 season began, the Mets traded Moises Alou, Paul Lo Duca, Endy Chavez, Bobby Parnell and Jose Coronado to the Phillies for Chase Utley. Lo Duca and Alou had OK seasons, but both soon fizzled and retired. Chavez was a starter for a couple years in Philadelphia, but was nothing special. Parnell was a career minor leaguer, and Coronado has been a defensive wizard and backup shortstop for many years in Philly before getting full-time duty in 2015 and posting a Rey Ordoñez-like .698 OPS. He has 0 career home runs. Meanwhile, Utley posted OPS numbers of .844, .836, .761 and .944 in his four years in New York.

That year the Mets also traded Pedro Feliciano and Marcos Carjaval to the Reds for Aaron Harang and Gary Majewski.

The year, however, was a disappointment: The Mets finished 84-78 and third in the NL East.

2008:
In an effort to stay competitive, the Mets signed Adam Dunn to a 5 year, $64.25 million contract and Erik Bedard (who wouldn't really be a free agent) to a 3 year, $24.6 million deal. The team also signed Jason LaRue as a backup to Ramon Castro. Dunn hit 180 home runs over the life of the contract, including a league-leading 41 home runs in '08. Bedard won 64 games over 4 years.

As a gimmick, the Mets signed Barry Bonds for $4 million. It was a terrible season, and his last.

Shawn Green, who we guess had a player option for 2008, was traded along with $4.5 million to the Pirates for Etienne Valenzuela, a pitching prospect now with strong numbers in AAA.

In late May, with the team struggling, the Mets traded Aaron Harang back to the Reds along with Jon Adkins and Mike Carp for Pedro Feliciano and Homer Bailey. Carp was nothing special; he hit 23 home runs for the Giants in 2014, but even then he was a below average offensive player for a first baseman. Adkins had a couple good years in relief with the Reds, and Harang had an unspectacular career. Meanwhile, Feliciano was a big part of the Mets' bullpen for three more years, and Homer Bailey became a star.

Despite these deals, the Mets finished 75-87, once again third in the NL East.

2009:
Carlos Delgado, who had a solid 2007 but a terrible 2008, was somehow dumped to the Braves along with Jorge Sosa and an OK rookie-ball centerfielder who had been drafted in the fifth round. In return, the Mets got a crappy reliever and rid of Delgado's contract.

The team also signed Prince Fielder for 4 years, $42 million; Anibal Sanchez for 2 years, $12.1 million, and Nick Markakis for 3 years, $32.4 million. These Mets weren't rebuilding.

With Dunn, Beltran and Nick Markakis in the outfield and Prince Fielder at first base, Lastings Milledge was out of the picture. He just wasn't developing as the Mets had hoped, and his trade value had diminished. He stayed with the team as a backup. Carlos Gomez was still figuring things out in AAA.

During the course of the year, which was a success, the Mets managed to unload Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez to the Orioles in salary dumps. They also acquired young pitcher Daniel Cabrera from the Orioles for four prospects and $5 million. Cabrera won the Cy Young award the next season, going 17-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 204 strikeouts. Pedro and Wagner flared out in 2009, never to be heard from again.

David Wright went .313/.403/.570 and hit 39 home runs, winning the NL MVP. It wasn't his best season at all, but it was his only MVP.

The Mets went 95-67, winning the Wild Card.

OK, this is taking too long and the information is too hard to retrieve. And it's not interesting, either.

The Mets went on to win the World Series in 2012 and 2015 (losing to the Twins in the Series in 2011 and the Yankees in 2014). The team's 2015 lineup included David Wright, Jose Reyes, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Emmanuel Garcia. The rotation included Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Mulvey.

Boring. At least you know why the posts have been sparse around here.

Thrilledge a Goner?

From Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated:

Milledge looks like a goner from the Mets. I am hearing his name so much in trade talks I am starting to think his nickname is Chip.

Take heart, Mets fans. We aren't sure, but we don't think Milledge will be traded. Minaya likely bounces his name around, but when all is said and done, who is going to play right field for the Mets next year? Certainly not Carlos Gomez, who is definitely not ready, at least according to John Sickels (and our own eyes).

We keep promising a pitching post, and it's coming. Basically we think a trade for Dan Haren or Johan Santana or-- God forbid-- a Southwest Quadrant guy like Joe Blanton is unnecessary. Then again, we're blogging scum.

Coming Soon:
Assembling the 2008 Mets, Part 4A
Baseball Mogul: The Mets through 2015

Noble Bit

Marty Noble, MLB.com, Reader Mailbag (one of our favorites, if only because Noble is a bitter curmudgeon with terrible opinions):

It was great to have someone who could speak their mind, with honesty, especially since he was right about mostly everything he said. I wonder if Minaya just didn't like Lo Duca because of this, and all of us fans will now have to deal with losing one of our favorite players. I, along with my children, will always be Mets fans, however, this is going to take time for us to recover from.
-- Jane M., address withheld

I understand how you feel. You won't be the only one who senses Lo Duca's absence. He was approachable, insightful and candid.

So, basically you're upset because Lo Duca made for good copy? We have a team to run here people! OK, the Mets have a team to run.

More later tonight. We promise.

Another NFL Thanksgiving Post: The Return of Writey Writer

by Writey Writer

GREEN BAY @ Detroit -3½
At bottom, I believe all of my friends have always hated me. At different stages in my manic wave between inferiority and superiority complexes this comes more or less to the fore. One apt example is the following:

I'm in the 6th grade and for the past year or so I've begun collecting baseball caps. This is not limited to baseball teams of course, but includes football, pro and college, as well as college basketball. At this point almost every inch of my wall was covered in these hats, which I chose through a mix of pure aesthetic sensibilities and my dispersed loyalties to various teams.

For the Thanksgiving game between Detroit and Green Bay I was invited to a friend's house. There's a long back story here, but it's irrelevant. I called him before hand and the issue of who we were rooting for came up. I didn't much care and said so. He told me his family was all rabid Green Bay fans, so I really shouldn't wear my Lions hat (yes, I had a Lions hat). I said OK, I'll wear my Green Bay hat, that'll go over great!

And I did wear it. But when I got there, my friend's uncle made some snide remark about it, and I learned that the entire family was from Detroit, always had been. They fucking hated Green Bay.

It was only my vast collection of hats that allowed me to walk into this bear trap. That, and the spite that runs just beneath the surface of any loving relationship.

Two important lessons emerged: pick one hat and wear it everywhere, and never trust anybody.

Green Bay -3.5


New York Jets @ DALLAS -14
The Jets beat Pittsburgh, and Dallas has to squeak by Washington, and here the line is at 14. Well, call me Johnny McDonka-Donk-Dick (seriously, that's what I go by from now on), but I'm hammering

Jets +14

INDIANAPOLIS @ Atlanta -12
I travel a lot for my job. Too much, my wife says. But fuck her. She spends the money doesn't she?

When you travel a lot (like I do), one thing you find yourself doing a lot is going up and down fucking escalators. Jesus I hate those things. Because when you're in an airport, everybody moves in these big stupid clusters, like schools of fish.

You know, I was reading the other day this scientist has whole fuckinng theory about clusters. Clusters of fish in schools, army ants in columns, locusts getting all agitated and tearing shit apart. Anyway he's got it all modeled out, pure mathematics. Even cancer clusters.

I find myself thinking about cancer clusters alot. Looking at all these fat fucking Americans moving around like a cluster of cancer cells, someone's at the bottom of the escalator and needs to run to catch a damn plane or something and all these stupid fucking Americans are just piled on that fucker, no regard for right or left, just standing on them moving stairs.

The other reason I think a lot about cancer, and clusters, is I'm a personal injury lawyer. I'm always looking up things about cancer, new cockamamie theories about how it's caused, why sometimes cases break out across a small town in clusters. Because there's a lot of money. Both in knowing why and not knowing why, see?

My job, which like I said puts me around escalators in airports a lot, also makes me think certain things when I'm riding up and down. For instance, every times I see a kid, I think, Hey maybe his little shoes are unlaced. Maybe that fucking catastrophe scene my mother used to paint, leg sawed off by the implacable stair teeth, blood gushing everywhere and me there, right there! to see it. It'd be like some astronomer in ancient mesopotamia or something, just grinding it out night after night, staring at the big old fucking black nothing of a sky, just minding his fucking business, recording, trying to come up with grand poetic theories of everything, and suddenly BOOM!! a crazy fucking lunar eclispse, or a fucking supernova goes off in the sky, right where he happens to be staring, and it's his, the fucker is NAMED after him, like Ali's Comet, and the Ali Nova, something really damn spectacular, you know what I mean?

So I can't help thinking these things riding up and down the escalator, waiting for a kid (a genius kid, I'd allow myself to imagine) with a bright fucking future in I dunno Major League Soccer in front of him, already signed the promotional contract with Nike and everything the little genius fucker, and then grind, crunch POP! off comes that little fucking leg, like lightening striking your fucking wife or something, too good to be true.

And then, I shit you not, it happened. I'd just gotten back to Boston from Houston (there's abackstory there, but it's irrelevant) and I was waiting in a bovine mass off crackers waiting to get on an up escalator away from the shuttle bus from concourse C. At the top I saw this little girl, couldna been more than 5 or 6, small but not retarded small. Cute too. Cute as hell. Which immediately got me thinking, A jury would eat this little bitch up! In a fucking wheelchair!?

She stepped onto the escalator, and turning quickly to reach for her father's hand, she dropped her little teddy bear [NO FUCKING WAY] toward the side [NO WAY]. she reached down to get it, still holding her father's hand, bending him slightly like a child tugging down a sapling [HOLY SHIT, NO WAY] and then she was bent down low and I couldn't really see across the way and i was on the way up but then she wasn't coming up from her crouch and [ONE TIME!] she's bent over and screaming bloody murder and pops has just caught on and he's tugging at her waist but its too late she's at the bottom and blood-curdling as applied to screams does not approach it [WE DID IT!!!!!] the way it was like rotten frozen slush through every crawling inch of your skin and your heart is frozen and screaming sick and before you know it youre at the top looking down with the others who cant stop gasping or screaming but you've taken action [GET THERE, GET THERE] and slammed the emergency stop at the top making sure that everyone it could see it was you and then bounding down the frozen march of slit steel stairs toward the father tugging desperately at the mangled hand halfway out of the bottom of the stairs where the last one has failed to disappear into the level ground.

Something like this happened to me once before. I was locked away somewhere for something, and this girl who I didn't like was walking down some cafeteria stairs on crutches. i sneered and said to GE, "fucking little twat is faking it, I hope she falls." and then she fell, right down the three stair landing BOOM! right onto her stupid little face.

Her name, the cute one with the club hand, her name is Mandy. A club hand ain't quite a wheelchair, the prosthetics are maybe a bit less sightly though. I thought to ask whether she was a concert pianist or a violin or oil painting prodigy, but decided it could wait. Dad was devastated (excellent) and poorly educated (double excellent). There was no mom at all. As I rode with them to the hospital I explained what it is that I do.

Atlanta +12

Week 12 NFL Picks, Thanksgiving Games: Widgets, Inc. Part 3 (The Finale)

by Monosyllable B. Housewarmings

That Sunday night was beautiful - a November chill in the air. I still wish I smoked so I had an excuse to go outside, just to poison myself. The Colts- Chargers game was about to start and despite the fact that I'd done terrible so far, I was sure Indianapolis would not let me down. If I'd learned one thing throughout my life, it's that - Advertising icons do not let people down. And Peyton Manning sure was one. I think I caught him shilling for an ad agency during the pre-game show.

I imagined Tim sitting down to watch this game, perhaps at a gigantic Las Vegas sportsbook, maybe in his own apartment - crazed, deranged, his bookie sweating bullets over this. Tim's the kind of guy who's been refused action, I'm sure.

And nothing went right. San Diego jumped out to a big lead. Peyton Manning threw five interceptions in the first half. After the second one I pulled my phone line out - I didn't anticipate four more in the game. And then, from nowhere, the Colts had a chance to not only win the game, but cover! 1st and goal from the 5. But then - they didn't have first and goal. San Diego challenged. And when Vinatieri missed the chip shot field goal, there went any prayers of a back door cover via interception.

I couldn't go in the next day. I couldn't. And that horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach emerged, a brittle, distant anxiety. I didn't know what to do. Could I face Tim? And Bim? And all the lies? I wondered if the secretary knew the story behind them - or if she cared. If I were to go in, I'd have to be harangued by Tim, plus keep up this weighty deception, so absurd, and Bim's somber, gleeful cynicism always in the back of my mind. I wasn't meant for high-level deceptions.

So I didn't. I woke up at 10 AM with a horrible feeling in my stomach and forgot what it was I was anxious about - then it hit me. But as the morning went on, it passed, and I even checked out the want ads for a little bit. I watched Monday Night Football - Seattle thrashed San Francisco. I had Seattle.

I bought a handle of Majorska and drained it in a week. I started playing online roulette again - and predictably, I lost. I had $5000 to my name and nothing in particular I wanted to do. I assigned 6 random things to the six faces of a die and went to roll it. Before I did, I recalled that I had 5% of Tim's action last week. He must think I'm dodging him - and sure enough, I had fifteen messages on the phone I wasn't checking. I didn't listen to any of them - just gulped down more vodka and tried to beg the last of my friends for an online loan.

It was Tuesday morning when I summoned the courage to put 1/5th of my net worth into an envelope and head over to the Widgets, Inc. World Headquarters. I was tense the entire way - I didn't want to see any of them. I bought a copy of the Post and tried to read it on the train, but I couldn't get past the pun-filled headlines. I'd be pacing around if I could, but the train was filled with people and I was anxious - what if someone stole the money? what if today was the day the terrorists strike?

I emerged from the subway stop - it was a colorless November morning. The clouds were high in the sky and I could see the spot where the sun should be - a shrouded, white disc above fluffy black and gray. It was three blocks to the place, and I was about ready to vomit. Lo, for weakness.

I walked up the three flights of stairs - I was out of breath. I pulled on the glass door to go in. It was locked. But surely Widgets, Inc. would be open for business on a day like today? I couldn't see anything inside. Maybe Tim decided not to come in. Maybe the whole place was shut down, maybe Tim found out Bim's secret. There was a mailbox beside the door, and I went to slip my envelope in. I thought about it for a while - then ripped open the Post and took out a pen. There were the spreads for the Thanksgiving games. They were a peace offering. I scribbled on the envelope:

Detroit +3½
Cowboys -14
Falcons +12

and dropped it in. If Tim would receive it, if the owner of the building would find a $1k windfall, if it would be dropped in the ocean and float past the Pillars of Hercules - I had no idea. Truth was, I didn't much care.

Estrada/Mota

Superb. Of all the words we spent on catchers, we spent none on Johnny Estrada. Here are some.

Estrada isn't anything special. He became a regular in 2004 with the Braves at the age of 28, and put up this great line: .314/.378/.450. Part of that high OBP was due to 11 hit-by-pitches, but he also exhibited more plate discipline than he has any time since. It's all but gone now; in 2007 Estrada had 12 walks, or one per every 38.7 plate appearances. He makes Paul Lo Duca (one per 20.3) look patient.

But Estrada has some power, hitting 22 home runs and 51 doubles over the last two seasons. He's also a switch-hitter, which looks good for a platoon situation with Ramon Castro, as Estrada has a career line of .283/.328/.412 as a left-hander, and .269/.295./387 as a right-hander. However, last year was different, as Estrada hit much better from the right side, despite seven of his ten home runs coming as a left-hander.

The guy dealt, Gas Can Mota, needs no farewell eulogy. His stuff is great, to be sure, but his performance is not.

The best part about this deal is that Estrada is not really good enough to be a starting catcher, so it will be easier for the Mets to give equal time to Ramon Castro. But who really knows what will get into Willie Randolph's head. If he could, he'd give 135 games to Paul Lo Duca right now.

Estrada made $3.7 last year; he's eligible for arbitration now, but it's hard to imagine him getting a raise.

Hope from Minaya

Per this report of the Mets' Monday announcement of Castillo's signing:

[Minaya] said that he thought Ramon Castro could be the starting catcher.

He's planning on going with youth in right field.

He thinks Mike Pelfrey might be better than anything available.

These are all great things. This makes us very happy. It may be a lie, but we're glad for it nonetheless.

Since everyone's talking about pitching right now, we'll proffer our opinion. We think that the Mets can have one of the top rotations/starting pitching ERAs in the league next year with the combination of Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Mulvey. Seriously, acquiring a starter is not necessary.

Update: Here's another report: It says here that Omar is only bluffing, but in a conference call with reporters earlier this evening, the GM said that, if necessary, the Mets would be comfortable with Ramon Castro as their everyday catcher... Hey, don't shoot the messenger. That was Omar's spin.

Why the hell would we shoot the messenger? That is fantastic news. That is a sign that the Mets are willing to think beyond their own false constructs. Last year the Mets set up Ramon Castro as a straw man in order to defend their manager, who otherwise was inexplicably giving Paul Lo Duca the majority of the starts when Castro was clearly the better player. He can't be the regular. He's the backup, but what a great backup he is! No, he should have been the starter then, and he should be the starter now.

No one is really buying what he was selling...

We are. A lot of us want to believe what Omar is saying, and we want to believe that he believes it.

"Ramon Castro, right now, is one of the better backups in the game,'' he said. "(And he) can easily be a full-time guy.''

Does anyone believe him?

We do. Why is everyone so matter-of-fact and made-up-their-mind about this? What council decreed that the fat, arthritic Ramon Castro could never be a starting catcher? It's an idea that has spread like the cold, but there is very weak reasoning behind it. He's been injured. He's fat. That applies to a lot of regular players. We're not selling jeans here, people.

Castillo Post

We didn't like it when the Mets traded for him, and we don't like it now. In fact, in a column at MetsGeek, we listed Castillo as one of three free agents the Mets shouldn't sign, putting his worst-case scenario contact at four years, twenty-eight million dollars.

What separates this deal from the Torrealba signing, which I defended, however mildly? A few things: age, draft picks and available talent.

First, this contract puts Castillo in blue and orange through his age-35 season. But at 31, he's already shown signs of decline all-around. He is taking fewer walks, thereby limiting his primary weapon. He is also stealing fewer bases and showing diminished range at second base. Already a below-average offensive player, Castillo will be fucking up the Mets lineup, stealing 500-600 plate appearances a year hitting second well into his declining years.

Second, as a Type B free agent, Castillo would have netted the Mets a compensation pick in one of the supplemental rounds of the June amateur draft. In fact, we thought that was one of the primary motivational factors behind trading for him, as that draft pick is worth far more than the "prospects" the Mets gave up in the deal. We wrote:

...since Castillo will be a Type B free agent if he declines arbitration, when the Mets don't resign him they will get a draft pick in the sandwich round between the first and second rounds of the amateur draft, itself worth more than Martin and Butera.

But by signing Castillo the Mets are making that deal even worse! They are stripping the deal of all its possible value.

Third, the available second base talent at Castillo's level is far more prolific than the available catching talent at Torrealba's level. In fact, the Mets have such a player already signed; his name is Damion Gotay, or Ruben Easley. Castillo's defense is the same as theirs at this point, and as an offensive platoon, Easley and Gotay are superior to Castillo. There was no good reason to give him this contract.

With this deal, the near-deal for Torrealba and the speculated deal for Eckstein, the Mets have shown us something, and it's not pretty. They've shown us that they value illusory qualities of grittiness and "being a winner" more than actual on-field performance. They've shown us that they are more interested in pleasing the media and the ignorant fan base by signing players with name recognition rather than using far cheaper players who don't have any name recognition but can provide the same level of performance.

We were willing to excuse the Torrealba deal, giving Minaya and the Mets' front-office some slack. We showed how the signing at least marginally adhered to solid principles of management and was based in an understanding of the market. In the light of the Castillo deal, however, we can no longer maintain that stance.

This is just a waste of money.

Another Catching Update

I'm sure you all know that the Mets' deal with mediocre catcher Yorvit Torrealba, which was all but complete and already thoroughly strewn through the muck of analysis and criticism, was pronounced dead.

We call this good news even though we were one of the few blogs praising the deal when all others had blown their stacks with disbelief. Some went so far to call it one of the worst contracts ever. Others claimed that what Torrealba brings to the table is not a hard thing to find. We don't quite see that, and challenge readers to provide names of catchers who meet these qualifications:

1) Replacement-level or better as a hitter.
2) Younger than 30; thus, healthy enough to play 80 games a year for three years.
3) A good defender.
4) Speaks both English and Spanish (optional).

We've gone through (not rigorously, but enough to get an idea) the rolls of minor league catching free agents, as well as those who are stuck in the minor leagues with no immediate major league role. The pickings are slim. Ultimately, we've concluded that giving nearly $5 million a year to a backup catcher is terrible, but under these circumstances, acceptable.

Instead of Yorvit, who? We're sure of MetsBlog's answer: as so many of us have been saying for the last week, lo duca is the best choice… Since MetsBlog speaks for the average fan, and they couldn't be more wrong, we feel obligated to show them why.

In 2007 Paul Lo Duca provided an EqA of .251, while Torrealba had .243. Both of these numbers are miserable. Ramon Castro, for what it's worth, had a .302 mark. Lo Duca, however, has no prospects of improving upon that EqA going forward, while Torrealba has a small chance of improving. They are basically the same offensive player, but Yorvit is younger and a better defender. The opinion-makers base their understanding of Lo Duca off his career .288 batting average, but don't realize that most of that average is empty. Torrealba's on-base skill is nothing great, but it's greater than Lo Duca's; enough to make them eqivalent offensive players. Want a terrible contract? Three years, $14.4 million to Lo Duca would be even worse.

There are no other good options, either. Gerald Laird is worse than Torrealba; if the Rangers want anything more than Caleb Stewart for him, the Mets should tell them to fuck off. The Orioles are a bad franchise and are probably asking for Lastings Milledge for Ramon Hernandez, when they should be begging teams to take him away.

The best options at this point come from the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is unfortunate because they no longer have an inept management group, and will demand fair value for one of their young catchers, whether it's Ronnie Paulino or Ryan Doumit, both of whom will be 27 next season.

The two are about equal players, but Paulino was the starter in 2007. This makes him more expensive, because he's a pre-arbitration catcher who has been a regular starter for two straight seasons. Like Lo Duca, Paulino's value is mostly in his batting average, which is greatly affected by luck:
Ronnie Paulino: 2006 & 2007

	AVG	BB	SO	HR
2006	.310	34	79	6
2007	.263	33	79	11

As you can see, Paulino had pretty much the same walks and strikeouts in both years, but his batting average decreased significantly. That is mostly a result of his BABIP dropping from .365 to .295. The latter is probably closer to his true level of ability. However, we don't know how much power he will end up with. His 11 home runs in 2007 was enough to keep his slugging percentage near .400 despite the decreased batting average. All in all, Paulino is a good young version of Paul Lo Duca.

However, the Pirates aren't going to give serious backup time to Carlos Maldonado or Humberto Cota, so they'll likely keep both their young catchers.

The outlook is bleak. Perhaps the best bet right now is that the Padres offer Michael Barrett arbitration, he accepts and gets $6 million, and the Padres trade him to the Mets.

Or the team could just, like, you know, let Ramon Castro catch full time.

Week 11 NFL Picks: The Sequel With Lao-Tzu: Electric Bugaloo

by Monosyllable B. Housewarmings

You might recall my picks post last year featuring Lao-Tzu - he was at that time living in my closet, subsisting on a meager diet of Doritos and grape soda. Now he's living in a swanky Midtown apartment, dining at Nobu on someone else's dime. We hang out rarely, but he just got a book deal and can't stop bringing it up in regular conversation - he's run out of things to rhyme "Simon and Schuster" with. Like I'm supposed to be jealous of his immense wisdom and the 5k he's getting plus tiny residuals. He'll be back in the closet in no time, I say. Problem is, I am jealous - why wasn't I born into a family of sages, augurs, and seers?

Anyway, he's writing this guest picks post because I promised him that I was friends with top bloggers online, and that they'd host his column and give him a little plug. It's funny how no one can resist the Western urge to sell.

----------------

Hello everyone - my new book, The Tao Te Fling - A Guide to Dating in America, will be published by Simon and Schuster and be available in bookstores next month, and is ready for pre-order on Amazon.com now.

San Diego @ JACKSONVILLE -3
Rivers run on errant course, defense is its own reward. Norv Turner is like the farmer who is not very good at farming - he should quit and do something else.
Jacksonville -3

Kansas City @ INDIANAPOLIS -14½
Indianapolis like tired army with sores and bruises tramps home, only to find reddened, surprising gladiators awaiting. To trample underfoot takes great strength, and despite wisdom in the Tao, Peyton Manning is mortal.
Kansas City +14½

Oakland @ MINNESOTA -5½
Culpepper to triumphant home, Peterson injured, Oakland still cannot stop the run. Oakland is both weary and unwise - that merely produces rancor.
Minnesota -5½

CLEVELAND @ Baltimore -3
Cleveland is like the fisherman scorned in the village - none notice that he grows fat and happy off his catch. Baltimore like boastful boys, always less than they are. Derek Anderson is wise in the Tao, for in the off-season he plans to attend my seminar on self-centering and self-actualizing - that'll be held at the Meadowlands Sheraton, March 6th-8th.
Baltimore +3

PITTSBURGH @ New York Jets -10
The Tao affects all things - and the wheel of fortune raises one man as it lowers another. Eric Mangini good enough to star in Sopranos episode - would now be whacked.
Jets +10

TAMPA BAY @ Atlanta -3
John Gruden appears like crazed film doll - and yet runs conservative offense.
Atlanta +3

Arizona @ CINCINNATI -3
Cincinnati has nothing left to play but pride, and they lack pride. Arizona wins game outright.
Arizona +3

Miami @ PHILADELPHIA -10
Donovan McNabb says it is hard to be a black quarterback, and that is made more difficult by being a bad quarterback. Miami starts a Mormon at quarterback - and thus he dreams of concubinage. That is not the way of the Tao.
Philadelphia -10

NEW ENGLAND @ Buffalo -16
Tom Brady is affected not by paternity suits. He could use my book, The Tao Te Fling - A Guide to Dating in America on how to better create a lasting relationship without unwanted pregnancy.
Buffalo +16

Washington @ DALLAS -10½
All things are one in the Tao, except Tony Romo. He is quite good.
Washington +10½

New Orleans @ HOUSTON -1
Much like the wind is forgotten after it blows through, Reggie Bush's ineffective carries go unknown. Here he taunts Houston and their foolishness.
New Orleans +1

Carolina @ GREEN BAY -9½
Vinny Testaverde should be wise in all things since he is aged - but he has been hit in the head many times.
Green Bay -9½

NEW YORK GIANTS @ Detroit -3
Jon Kitna is a condemned man - to be placed in a sack and thrown into the river, thence he will drown. But he will still cover.
Detroit +3

ST. LOUIS @ San Francisco -3
Old NFL coach Dick Nolan has died, and his son pilots San Francisco and merely wishes he were dead. Yet all things come to those in the Tao.
St. Louis -3

Chicago @ SEATTLE -5½
With the arm of a dragon, heart of a champion, and head of a fool, Rex Grossman travels to Seattle.
Chicago +5½

Tennessee @ DENVER -2
Men in Colorado are not more foolish than others, and yet they will bet on this game, and become disgusted with themselves. Tuesday morning will be grim - but they can look forward to a fun Friday night out, especially if they've read The Tao Te Fling - A Guide to Dating in America, being published by Simon and Schuster and available soon!
Tennessee +2, LOCK OF THE WEEK, Tennessee 20, Denver 17

Chip to My Lou

After considering back-page headlines like "Chip Off the Old Block" and "Chipped Off" and "Chips Ahoy!" we decided to just go crazy nonsensical with it.

We secretly liked Chip Ambres. And now he's gone:

The Padres agreed to terms with two minor league free agents: Chip Ambres, for his competence at all three outfields spots and right-handed power... Ambres, who played for the Mets' Triple-A club last year, is out of minor league options but could open the season in Triple-A without being exposed to waivers.

Most Mets fans considered Ambres just another AAA outfielder until he hit a seeing-eye walk-off single for the Mets last year. But we always thought he would be a perfect fourth/fifth outfielder, that if the Mets had four and Endy Chavez, the fifth should be Chip Ambres.

Too late. He signed with the Padres, which is a good sign that he's an undervalued commodity who could contribute to a major league team. Last year he hit .274/.379/.475 with 21 home runs in AAA, and over his whole minor league career he has a line of .257/.358/.427.

Ambres, who will be 28 next year, has a lot of patience, good right-handed power, and a solid outfield glove. It's a shame the Mets couldn't give him a greater role.

Defending the Torrealba Signing

Look for our arguments soon on Mets Geek defending the recent 3 year, $14.4 million contract given to mediocre catcher Yorvit Torrealba. Here's a sort of outline:

1) Replacement level for catchers is lower than you might think, and Yorvit is certainly above replacement.

2) Most replacement-level catchers are not a) young or b) healthy. There are oodles of Barajas and Bowen to go around, but none of them fit the bill of a young, healthy catcher to back up Ramon Castro.

3) Clarifying #2: the deal makes a lot more sense if Castro gets 100 games while Torrealba gets the other 62; and not the other way around.

4) Clarifying #3: $7.1 million per year is a good deal for Yormon Castroalba. Don't worry about who got which contract.

5) Despite all the recent gumming, both Castro and Torrealba have good arms. Torrealba's arm is very good, and what little meaningful defensive metrics we have for catchers show that he is an excellent one.

6) Torrealba had the best year of his career at 28. It's still likely that he could improve, having his three best seasons in a Mets uniform. Consider that his major league line of .251/.313/.391 over 1484 plate appearances is better than his .263/.308/.349 minor league averages over 2273 PAs, despite playing most of that time in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast and California Leagues.

7) It's not "it's just money." It's that those catchers who would provide a higher level of production than Torrealba are not freely available. However, there are certain minor league free agents who could provide the same level of production as Torrealba for far less money. We might have taken a flier on Mark Johnson, for instance, but he's a little too old for the Mets' preferences in this situation, and his only skill-- a good one, OBP-- is overshadowed by his clear deficiencies in terms of batting average and power. There just aren't very many good catchers anywhere. We originally thought we could find dozens of catchers who were both as good as Torrealba and as young as Torrealba, but we were wrong. There are some, and it would be interesting to know if the Mets considered them, but there aren't as many as you might think.

We've already said too much.

Matthew Cerrone's Paul Lo Duca Saga

One of the most enjoyable themes of this offseason (for us, anyway), has been reading Matthew Cerrone's increasingly desperate pleas for the Mets to retain the services of their incumbent catcher, Paul Lo Duca. Now that Lo Duca's departure has become a certainty, we'd like to go back and share our joy with the larger blogging community. You might ask, 'why do you hate Paul Lo Duca so much?' And we would say, 'Because he's an asshole.' Enjoy. The italics, ellipses, and bad grammar are Cerrone's.

October 3. Ivan "Pudge" is expected to remain a Tiger, and therefore is no longer an option for the Mets.

…i suspect i am speaking from emotion on this, and not from intellect, but, i feel i would much rather lo duca, if for no other reason than he is a lighting rod for the Mets dugout, which is something you can’t put a price on…

October 29.Lo Duca enters his horse in some big race. He tells reporters he wants to return to the Mets because the fans are so great to him.

…i’m so torn on this… i like lo duca a lot…but, in talking with people connected to the team, i sense ownership and some coaches and players have soured on him, as they feel he was too negative during September, i.e., the team looked to him as an emotional leader, during which he was down and out and depressed - much like you and i…to me, he was probably just reflecting his honesty, which is a good thing to some extent, but i also understand how this can be bad…what’s more, i keep hearing that the team wants a catcher who works better with the pitching staff…and while i’m not totally sure what that means, the guy who is referenced as a better example is O’s C Ramon Hernandez, who is rumored to be available through trade, and who had worked quite well with Rick Peterson and their young pitching staff in oakland…

…if i had to guess, at this point, i’d say the Mets will pursue other options at catcher, while considering lo duca to be a fall-back position, knowing how badly he wants to return…personally, i’d just re-sign him… i think his heart, pride and intensity is something this club should be built around, but i will understand if they go a different direction…

October 30. Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post reports that the Mets and Marlins are interested in Yorvit Torrealba.

…i’d rather lo duca, frankly, who is a better hitter and a better defensive player, as far as i’m concerned, though i understand the Mets flipping over every rock…

Cerrone wasn't the only one uninterested in Torrealba. Little did we know. Later that day Ken Rosenthal said on the radio that Paul Lo Duca was "as good as gone" from the Mets. Cerrone was quiet.

October 31. The next day discussion began about the Mets and Jorge Posada. That provoked a review of the Lo Duca/Torrealba situations.

…as i have said before, though, i still think the Mets will first look in to acquiring a catcher via trade, all while stalling on lo duca and monitoring the availability and interest level of torrealba, as well as posada, who i have no doubt will eventually re-sign with his Yankees, while using the Mets as leverage to get the best deal…

Very reasonable. At this point, despite Rosenthal's bold words, the Mets are just "stalling" on Lo Duca. There is still plenty of hope that the Mets will bring back the heart and soul of their team.

November 5. On the 5th Cerrone repeats what he said on the 29th, pretty much word-for-word. torn, heart, pride, and intensity, etc. Also on this day Omar Minaya told the AP that he was optimistic about re-signing Lo Duca.

November 7. Mark Hale reports that the Mets and Lo Duca are far from a deal. He suggests that the Mets could deal for the Rangers' Gerald Laird.

…laird is interesting, but, from what i can gather, he’d likely cost Lastings Milledge or Carlos Gomez, which is a lot to ask for a guy who hit just .224 with nine homers in 407 at-bats last season…

…by the way, i sense the Mets are not nearly as interested in torrealba as most reports lead on…my money is on either lo duca or a guy like hernandez…

That same day it is reported that the Rockies have offered Torrealba a two-year deal.

…as i said this morning, i sense the Mets are not nearly as interested in torrealba as most reports have suggested…my money is on them either bringing back Paul Lo Duca, or trading for a guy like Ramon Hernandez…

November 12. All indications are that the Yankees will sign Posada. Ken Rosenthal writes that the Mets will probably sign Lo Duca now.

…jeez, whatever, just re-sign lo duca already…seriously…let’s go…i would much, much rather two or three years of lo duca over five years of posada, and i suspect i am not alone in this…

…hopefully, the Mets realize posada is just using them, and that other free-agent options are a mistake, and that a guy like Ramon Hernandez is not necessary, and so lo duca has been and will be the best choice…

Here we really begin to see the anxiousness. "Jeez" and "let's go" are sure indications of this. Later that day the Posada signing is announced. Cerrone is relieved, fairly confident now that Lo Duca will return to the Mets.

…at any rate, i still have to imagine we’ll be put through the process of a few trade rumors and chit-chat about Yorvit Torrealba, but in the end i hope the Mets see the light and just bring back lo duca…

November 13. First, it's reported on ESPN Radio that the Mets will make an offer to Torrealba. Mike Nichols is first on the scene, but Cerrone comes in with guns blazing.

…i totally agree, mike…it’s perpexling, to say the least…

Cerrone then repeats for the third time the two stock Lo Duca paragraphs (as seen in the October 29 quotation), adding:

…i just can’t believe that direction could be torrealba…

That same day Lo Duca's agent is reported to have "e-mailed reporters saying that the Mets apparently do not see his client as a priority ‘at this time.’"

…nevertheless, it’s not like the Mets are the only team with interest in lo duca…the open-market buzz continues to be that teams such as the Rockies and Marlins will look to lo duca, so if the Mets want him, they should just bring him in…now

November 14, yesterday. The shit hits the fan. Cerrone goes nuts. The Mets are reported to be close to a 3 year, $15 million contract with Yorvit Torrealba.

…i don’t get it…seriously, i just don’t get it…this could end up being one of the more perplexing moves of the Omar-Minaya Era…

…i’m very confused…i am…it’s nothing against torrealba necessarily, it’s just he appears to be a career back-up, who put together some decent offensive stats mostly because he played in Coors, which is fine, i mean, good for him…but, how is that better than lo duca, or Ramon Castro for that matter…i can only assume there is something about yorvit that i don’t see

The day's goodness also included a whole post full of rambling, italicized goodness. Here's some excerpts.

…from what i can gather, the Mets feel torrealba, going forward, over the next few years, will be as good as Paul Lo Duca, if not better, plus come at a less expensive price…

…as for lo duca, who i will bet ends up with Rockies or Marlins, and who i will miss a lot [...] [...]and i guess the club feels a two-headed, castro-torrealba option is a better fit…

if it does happen, i’m going to be very skeptical…on one hand, i respect this sort of outside-the-box thinking, especially at such a weak position…however, i like lo duca…and, yes, maybe i am only viewing him as a character, because, truthfully, he was very weak at and behind the plate this past season…but, he’s good enough, and i have a feeling the Mets will miss him in the locker room since he deflected a lot of anxiety and attention away from other people on the team who may not be ready to address reporters, deal with WFAN, get dirty and essentially be a lightening rod…

And a "stream of consciousness" post, as if the others weren't:

frankly, i prefer lo duca, and i am still holding out hope that he returns, though i do not expect that he will…however, i am starting to understand and buy in to the logic in retaining every possible in-house prospect, and just spending money on torrealba, who, according to my discussion with Troy E. Renck from the Denver Post, sounds to be a hard-working, passionate, win-at-all-costs type of guy…

Uh-oh. Yorvit will become the new Heart and Soul. Look out. He's got the weak offensive numbers, and therefore grit. We'll just have to wait and see if he emulates Paulie's other fine attributes. But wait!

if the Mets really want him that badly, they can tack on the rumored and desired third year, which i really hope they do not do…

…the question now is, does yorvit really want to play in new york city, or is he, like so many others, just using the Mets to try and pry an extra year or a few more dollars from the Rockies…if this ends up being the case, and torrealba signs elsewhere, where does that leave the Mets…hopefully, it will mean back with Paul Lo Duca, assuming he is still available…

November 15. In the home stretch now. Adam Rubin reports that this Torrealba might go as far as four years with a provision for a fifth! Cerrone blows his top!

…oh, my…i mean, i thought three years was excessive[...] [...]wow, this is looking very, very odd…

The deal is announced. Cerrone still won't give it up.

…i am not sure what to make of this torrealba and castro combination…will it be a so-called platoon…and if so, why didn’t the Mets just bring back Paul Lo Duca and give castro more playing time next year…hopefully we will hear from Omar Minaya soon…

He needs one (last?) moment to ponder.

…as i have mentioned before, in talking with people connected to the team, i sense ownership and some coaches feel he was too negative and too surly during August and September…additionally, from what i can gather, there is a lot of concern regarding his ‘health,’ especially since he is 36 years old, looking for a three-year deal, and was pretty banged up last season…lastly, i sense there is mild concern with how he spoke publicly about Willie Randolph during the end of last season, some of which, if you ask me, was totally warranted…and while no one element is enough to base a goodbye on, when all added all up it seals his fate…

Why is 'health' encased in those marks? Is that a pseudo-concern? Anyway, I think Mr. Cerrone makes some good points here, although he neglected to mention that Lo Duca is a terrible hitter. Of course, Yorvit is too, but he has some other things going for him.

…that being said, the Mets seemingly view torrealba as less expensive and younger, and that he will give roughly the same offensive production as lo duca going forward, especially with ample rest, plus he’s positive, and seen as a clutch hitter, he speaks english and spanish, he has played on a gritty, come-from-behind team that went to the world series, and it will not cost a prospect to get him…

And finally, some sort of reconciliation. Yorvit is revealed as Junior McGrit, Paul Lo Duca's spiritual son. A Rockies' fan writes, "Sometimes it’s nice to know that the guys we root for care just as much about winning as we do. With Yorvit Torrealba, there was never a doubt. That’s why I’ll miss having him behind the plate."

…i hate to admit it, especially since this is the opinion of just one fan in colorado, but this write-up from dan, a Rockies fan, has made me far more understanding of this acquisition…

Whatever you say, man. Whatever you say.

CHONE Projections, Mets

CHONE is a projection system like PECOTA. Here are the hitter projections from Chone Smith. We have separated out Met players and players who concern the Mets. Remember that for minor leaguers, the numbers represent how the player would be expected to perform in the major leagues in 2008. wOBA is "weighted on-base average," a number which, like OPS, combines slugging and on-base percentages, but with a meaningful unit (related to run expectancy) and scaled like on-base percentage. This means that .300 is bad, .400 is good, and .330-.340 is average. We think. Also, the projections include a lot of minor leaguers, but we've only shown the ones who are interesting.

CHONE Projections: Mets and Related Players
Player	Age	PA	wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	SB
Jason Alfaro	30	382	.296	.251	.288	.388	10	2
Moises Alou	41	420	.369	.297	.362	.488	17	2
Chip Ambres	28	456	.323	.239	.331	.392	13	8
Marlon Anderson	34	245	.332	.271	.331	.427	7	4
Carlos Beltran	31	597	.376	.274	.367	.503	28	17
Mike Carp	22	488	.301	.234	.307	.365	12	2
Luis Castillo	32	591	.333	.292	.364	.369	4	15
Ramon Castro	32	221	.336	.254	.321	.453	10	0
Endy Chavez	30	339	.312	.276	.327	.371	3	11
Carlos Delgado	36	585	.362	.262	.354	.479	27	1
Player	Age	PA	wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	SB
Damion Easley	38	274	.336	.253	.332	.433	10	1
David Eckstein	33	529	.324	.286	.348	.369	4	8
Nick Evans	22	484	.297	.236	.298	.373	11	2
Carlos Gomez	22	417	.305	.256	.317	.366	6	38
Ruben Gotay	25	472	.317	.262	.326	.385	8	7
Shawn Green	35	536	.329	.265	.334	.409	13	6
Brett Harper	26	465	.312	.249	.299	.419	17	1
Sean Henry	22	452	.290	.243	.292	.364	8	17
Anderson Hernandez	25	555	.295	.269	.308	.354	5	16
Ben Johnson	26	369	.330	.255	.336	.407	10	4
Player	Age	PA	wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	SB
Mark Kiger	28	505	.299	.234	.319	.339	7	8
Paul LoDuca	36	498	.310	.271	.319	.378	8	2
Mark Loretta	36	556	.321	.275	.345	.365	6	3
Fernando Martinez	19	325	.295	.247	.295	.372	7	5
Lastings Milledge	23	489	.344	.271	.352	.423	12	18
Daniel Murphy	23	503	.297	.254	.300	.371	8	4
Yorvit Torrealba	29	400	.293	.233	.300	.353	8	3
Jose Reyes	25	693	.349	.293	.355	.438	12	67
Jose Valentin	38	305	.314	.236	.311	.400	9	3
David Wright	25	652	.413	.317	.410	.544	28	25

Yes, there are many other catchers who do better than Yorvit's .293 wOBA. One of them is Ramon Castro, who, despite the rumors, damn well better be the "regular catcher," sizes of contracts be damned. Paul Lo Duca is projected to keep being terrible.

We see here that Easley is projected to provide more offense than Castillo, albeit in less playing time. A platoon with Gotay would probably be sufficient to replace Castillo and would be a lot cheaper.

Solid seasons are projected for David Wright, Moises Alou, Carlos Beltran, and somewhat surprisingly, Carlos Delgado. Jose Reyes is not projected to improve, while Lastings Milledge is still not a superstar, but is certainly better than Shawn Green.

We left out some AAAA/washout guys like Fernando Tatis, Miguel Negron, David Newhan and Andy Tracy, because nobody really cares. Also, the projections for the low-minor league fellows are mostly academic at this point.

You'll notice that the Brett Harpers and Mark Kigers of the world are represented. Call them the control group.

Look for two pieces in the near future: 1) Matt Cerrone's Paul Lo Duca saga, and 2) Assembling the Mets, Part 4: Pitchers, Section A: Starters.

Catching Update

From Ken Rosenthal:

The Mets are expected to re-sign Castro on Wednesday, probably to a two-year deal. They also are pursuing Torrealba, another free agent, but not to be a 120-game starter.

Castro, 31, would play more frequently under the new arrangement, perhaps starting 80 to 90 games, according to sources. Torrealba, 29, would play the rest, saving wear-and-tear on his right shoulder.

That sounds familiar. Where did we see this before? Oh, right:

It would be mistake for the organization not to bring back Castro, since he's the second-best free agent catcher available. But it would also be folly not to have a backup plan. This does not mean, however, that Castro shouldn't be the starter. As we saw last year, we cannot rely on Ramón to be a backup. When Lo Duca went down, Castro wasn't long to follow. The Mets then had to rely on Mike DiFelice. It would make more sense to give Castro about 65% of the starts and have a younger, healthier backstop behind him.

Of course, our suggestion did not consider the possibility of making that backup Yorvit Torrealba and paying him beyond... two years at about $7 million (Rubin, Daily News), or giving him a multiyear deal worth as much as $5 million annually (Shpigel, NY Times). But maybe that's the best option, all things considered.

Barrett is out because he is a Type A free agent and the Mets have a first round draft pick after #15. Lo Duca is out because, well, this is regime change and the team needs new blood. The price for Ramon Hernandez is probably too high, because the Orioles don't realize they should be dealing away all their large contracts for whatever they can get. Jason Kendall and Jose Molina are both old and thus do not match the age requirement for the team's super-backup role. The Mets have probably inquired about guys like Montero and Clement, and found them either expensive or unavailable. And we all know that there is a severe dearth of catching talent in the organization's upper minor leagues.

Torrealba would not be just a backup catcher on the Mets; he would be called upon to catch up to 40% or more of the team's games. It makes sense to bring in a younger, more durable guy for this role instead of a Mike Difelice or Gary Bennett. Considering the options, and reserving the right to criticize the length and size of the contracts, we like this plan. Bravo! A Blastings! Thrilledge thumbs up.

Edit: Of course, if the Mets can find someone cheaper than Torrealba, like a backup from another organization or a minor league free agent, they should go for him instead. We don't want to be ridiculed for the wrong reasons. We know Joejessica sucks.