Thursday, October 11, 2007

Wright is MVP

According to David Gassko of The Hardball Times, David Wright was far and away the best player in the National League:
Sure, the Mets collapsed over the last few weeks of the season, but none of the blame for that can go to Wright, who had a 1.034 OPS in September and October. It’s not fair to punish a player, especially so severely, just because his teammates choked down the stretch.
David receives a huge boost from his defense, where along with Pedro Feliz he ranks as the best defensive third baseman in baseball. This must seem strange to Mets fans, who can recall many of Wright's signature glove tap-preceded errant throws to first base. But the fielding metrics generally agree that Wright has such a superlative range that its effect is not greatly diminished by the occasional throwing error. Ryan Zimmerman, who always seemed to make amazing plays against the Mets, ranks up among the defensive leaders as well, as does Chipper Jones, Gassko's #2 MVP choice.

Gassko used a combination of hitting, fielding, pitching and catching to rank every player in baseball according to "Total Runs Above Average," and provided an Excel spreadsheet with his results. Though I think the numbers value fielding a little too highly, they are still very interesting.

Here are how the Mets did:

David Wright: +44 Hitting, +29 Fielding; Total: 73 (2nd overall)
Carlos Beltran: +25 Hitting, +11 Fielding; Total: 35 (16th)
Jose Reyes: +20 Hitting, +15 Fielding; Total: 35 (18th)
Billy Wagner: +14 Pitching
Orlando Hernandez: +13 Pitching
Moises Alou: +11 Hitting; +0 Fielding; Total: 11
John Maine: +9 Pitching
Aaron Heilman: +9 Pitching
Pedro Feliciano: +7 Pitching
Tom Glavine: +4 Hitting; +2 Pitching; Total: 6
Carlos Gomez: -5 Hitting; +10 Fielding; Total: 5
Pedro Martinez: +4 Pitching; Total: 4
Marlon Anderson: +1 Hitting; +0 Fielding; Total: 2 (rounding)
Endy Chavez: -4 Hitting; +6 Fielding; Total: 2
Oliver Perez: -1 Hitting; +2 Pitching; Total: 1
Damion Easley: +5 Hitting; -4 Fielding; Total: 0 (rounding)
Ricky Ledee: -1 Hitting; +1 Fielding; Total: 0
Ramon Castro: no numbers given for some reason
Anderson Hernandez: +0 Hitting
Luis Castillo: +2 Hitting; -3 Fielding; Total: -1
Julio Franco: -5 Hitting; +4 Fielding (!); Total: -1
Sandy Alomar, Jr.: -2 Hitting, +1 Catching; Total: -1
Willie Collazo: -1 Pitching
Jose Valentin: -3 Hitting; +2 Fielding; Total: -2 (rounding)
Philip Humber: -2 Pitching
David Newhan: -4 Hitting; +1 Fielding; Total: -3
Lastings Milledge: +0 Hitting; -3 Fielding; Total: -3
Ruben Gotay: +1 Hitting; -4 Fielding; Total: -3
Paul Lo Duca: -2 Hitting; -3 Catching; Total: -5
Chan Ho Park: -5 Pitching
Scott Schoeneweis: -5 Pitching
Brian Lawrence: -7 Pitching
Guillermo Mota: -8 Pitching
Shawn Green: -1 Hitting; -8 Fielding; Total: -8 (rounding)
Dave Williams: -9 Pitching
Mike Pelfrey: -1 Hitting; -9 Pitching; Total: -10
Carlos Delgado: -5 Hitting; -5 Fielding; Total: -10
Jeff Conine: -10 Hitting; -4 Fielding; Total: -14

We should note that other defensive metrics actually find Delgado to be well above average.

Other notable players and their metrics include Adam Dunn (+24, -20), Manny Ramirez (+5, -29), Ryan Braun (+33, -32), Garrett Atkins (+3, -25), Nick Punto (-31, +4) and Carlos Lee (+12, -18). The entire Reds outfield was horrible defensively, with Dunn, Griffey (+6, -24) and Josh Hamilton (+14, -11).

According to this system, the worst player in baseball was Scott Olsen of the Marlins (+2 Hitting, -43 Pitching), and the best was Curtis Granderson (+36, +39). The worst position player was Pirate 3B Jose Bautista (-5, -33), and the best pitcher was Jake Peavy (+6 Hitting, +42 Pitching).

The best defensive shortstop was rookie Troy Tulowitzki, with a +25 defense. If these defensive metrics are at least half right, Troy is the RoY, not Ryan Braun (see above). Other shortstops' defensive ratings: John McDonald of the Blue Jays (+20), Reyes (+15), Adam Everett (+14), Jack Wilson (+13), Omar Vizquel (+11), Jimmy Rollins (-6), Michael Young (-11), Yuniesky Betancourt (-11), Stephen Drew (-13), Juan Uribe (-15), Felipe Lopez (-19), Hanley Ramirez (-24), and Derek Jeter (-25).

We claimed yesterday that Mark Ellis was a great defensive second baseman. Here's how he ranks amongst some notable two-sackers: Chase Utley (+21), Brandon Phillips (+15), Mark Ellis (+12), Ian Kinsler (+11), Aaron Hill (+11), Placido Polanco (+9), Orlando Hudson (+8), Mark DeRosa (+8), Howie Kendrick (+4), Robinson Cano (+3), Brian Roberts (+2), Dan Uggla (-2), Jeff Kent (-3), Luis Castillo (-3), Kelly Johnson (-9), and Ray Durham (-11).

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